The USDCHF moved lower yesterday and in the first hour of trading in the Asian session dipped lower and below the 100 day MA (currently at 0.91996. The low reached 0.91903).
However, the early dip found buyers and push back above that key moving average level. Later in the early European session, the price dipped down to retest the 100 day moving average at 0.91996, and found willing buyers. That was a bullish clue, and the price started to push back to the upside.
The move higher was able to move back above the 200 hour moving average at 0.9217 (green line), and then the 100 hour moving average at 0.92256 (blue line).
The buying did not subside until reaching the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the November 24 high to the November 30 low at 0.92398. The early New York session has seen the price trade between that retracement and the broken 100 hour moving average (blue line).
What next?
There is a battle between the 100 hour moving average and 38.2% retracement. The best case scenario for the buyers (they have more control above the moving averages) would be for the 100 hour moving average to hold support and the buying to take the price above the 38.2% retracement. The next upside target would come at the swing area between 0.92495 and 0.92524. Above that and traders will look toward the swing highs going back to November 26 between 0.9265 and 0.92746.
Move below the 100 hour moving average and the technical waters become more muddy. A move below the 200 hour moving average (green line) at 0.9217 would increase the bearish bias and have traders looking back toward the 100 day moving average (and 0.9200 level).
For now, the buyers are in control above the hourly moving averages, with more work to do above the 38.2% retracement.
