The USDCAD moved lower today despite renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada, after campaign ads aired in the U.S. showing former President Reagan criticizing tariffs — comments that President Trump dismissed as “cheating.” Trump followed up by announcing a new 10% tariff on Canadian imports, yet the Canadian dollar is modestly stronger on the day. Earlier, in August he had increased tariffs on Canadian goods (outside of the USMCA exemptions) from 25% up to 35% as part of a broader trade escalation.
From a technical perspective, the downside move found support within a key swing area between 1.39684 and 1.3975 — a zone that confined trading in late September and early October before the breakout to the upside. That same area also held as a floor last week, and today’s bounce reinforces its importance as a defining support zone going forward.
As long as the pair holds above that support, traders will eye a rebound toward the 100-hour moving average at 1.4001 and the 200-hour MA at 1.4019. However, a break below 1.3968 would shift the bias further negative, opening the door toward the 38.2% retracement of the September rally at 1.3944 and the 200-day moving average at 1.3932 — both critical levels that could attract dip buyers or trigger momentum selling if breached.
