The USDCAD has been grinding higher over the past few weeks, continuing the rebound that began after the pair bottomed out two weeks ago. At that time, the downside move stalled near prior swing lows from August and early September, and the failure to extend lower gave buyers the green light to step back in. Since then, the upside momentum has carried through, with steady gains over the last two trading weeks.
On Friday, the rally reached a weekly high of 1.3958, bringing the pair within striking distance of the falling 200-day moving average at 1.39702. That level remains a critical barrier for buyers — the last time USDCAD traded above the 200-day average was back in April, so a clean break this week would represent a meaningful technical shift. If the pair can get above the 200-day moving average, the next upside target comes in at the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the 2025 high, at 1.40212, which would open the door for a more extended bullish run.
On the downside, Friday’s upside push also carried the price above a key swing area just above 1.3900. That zone now becomes important near-term support as the new trading week begins. If the price were to slip back below that area, it would raise doubts about the breakout’s sustainability and likely frustrate buyers who stepped in late. Below 1.3900, the next downside levels to watch are 1.3878, followed by the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.38339.
Heading into the week, the technical battle lines are clearly drawn. Support sits near 1.3900, while resistance is defined by the 200-day moving average at 1.39702. Traders are likely to lean against those levels in the short term, with momentum expected to accelerate once a breakout occurs. A sustained move above the 200-day average would embolden bulls and target 1.4021, while a break back below 1.3900 would shift the bias toward disappointment and renewed downside pressure.
