Fundamental backdrop: mixed US data weighs on the dollar
The USDCAD moved lower following a heavy US data dump, with the October jobs report showing a decline, followed by a rebound in November, a pattern heavily distorted by the recent government shutdown. At the same time, October retail sales were unchanged at the headline level, but the control group jumped a strong 0.8%, pointing to firmer underlying consumer demand. The initial market reaction saw the USD weaken, dragging USDCAD lower before a modest rebound.
Technical picture: moving average caps upside
Despite the bounce higher earlier in the day, the USDCAD price remains below a key resistance level, keeping sellers in control. On the hourly chart, the 100-hour moving average continues to define the topside, and has now repelled price for the fifth time since November 26. Ahead of the jobs report, USDCAD chopped sideways, allowing the moving average to drift lower toward price, but sellers once again leaned against that level.
The 100-hour MA currently sits at 1.37802 and continues to slope lower. A move above that level is required to give buyers the minimum technical victory needed to trigger a deeper corrective bounce. Absent a break above, the sellers retain control. The current price trades near 1.3748.
Upside targets: what buyers need
If buyers can push and hold above the 100-hour moving average, the next upside targets come into view:
1.3799–1.3800: swing lows from December 8
1.3827: falling 200-hour moving average
1.3839: 50% retracement of the rally from the mid-June 2025 low
Only sustained trade above these levels would shift the broader short-term bias more firmly toward the upside.
Downside risk: sellers eye key swing support
On the downside, a break below today’s low at 1.3738 would open the door for a retest of a key swing-area floor between 1.3720 and 1.3726, a zone that dates back to August and September. A move below that area—and staying below it—would increase the risk of renewed downside momentum.
Watch the video analysis
In the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving USDCAD in real time, outlining the bias, the risk-defining levels, and the next upside and downside targets that matter most.
Be aware. Be prepared.
