The USDCAD saw an attempted breakout earlier this week fueled by broad USD strength. Remarkably, this move higher occurred despite rising oil prices—which typically support the Loonie (lower USDCAD)—highlighting just how dominant the USD bid was.
However, the rally hit a wall at the 61.8% retracement of the 2026 range (1.3757). Since then, momentum has shifted. The price tumbled back through a key swing zone (1.3714 – 1.3724) and is currently struggling below its 100 and 200-hour moving averages.
Key Technical Levels to Watch
| Level / Zone | Significance | Status |
| 1.3714 – 1.3724 | Upper Swing Area / Resistance | Active Ceiling |
| 1.37045 | 50% Midpoint | Resistance |
| 1.3671 – 1.3679 | 100 & 200-Hour MAs | Current Pivot Zone |
| 1.36517 | 38.2% Retracement | Immediate Support |
| 1.3623 – 1.3630 | Lower Consolidation Swing Area | Key Support Target |
The "What Next?" Scenarios
The bears currently have the slight edge as long as the price remains pinned below the hourly moving averages. However, the market is in a "prove it" phase for both sides.
The Bearish Case: If the price stays below 1.3679, the bias remains tilted to the downside. Sellers will look to clear the 1.3651 mark (38.2% retracement) to open the door for a test of the major support zone between 1.3623 and 1.3630.
The Bullish Case: A rotation back above the 200-hour MA (1.3679) would neutralize the immediate selling pressure. This shift would flip the short-term bias back to the buyers, targeting the 1.3704 midpoint and the 1.3724 swing area.
Bottom Line: Sellers are in control while below the moving averages, but they need a definitive break of 1.3651 to ignite the next leg lower.
