The USDCAD has pushed to a new high for the week—and its highest level since January 20—in early North American trading. In doing so, the price has broken above a key swing area on the daily chart at 1.3860. That level was a clear bias-defining resistance, and the break tilts control more firmly in favor of the buyers.
With that hurdle cleared, traders now shift their focus to the next upside target at the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the November high, which comes in at 1.3888. A move above that level would open the door for further upside momentum, with the next key target near 1.3928—an area defined by prior January highs and historical swing levels. That zone becomes a natural area where sellers may look to lean with defined risk.
On the downside, if sellers are going to regain control, the first step is getting the price back below today’s low near 1.3446. That level held during the Asian and early European sessions and now serves as a short-term risk-defining support. A move below would disappoint buyers on the breakout and shift the bias more neutral in the near term.
There is still more work for sellers to fully tilt the bias back in their favor, but holding above 1.3860 keeps the buyers in control. The playbook is straightforward: stay above resistance-turned-support and extend higher; fall back below and the breakout starts to fail.
In the video above, I walk through these levels in detail and explain why they matter for defining bias, managing risk, and identifying the next targets.
