The USDCAD moved lower alongside broader U.S. dollar weakness today, but buyers stepped in at a familiar support zone. The pair tested the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart near 1.37844 (green line) before bouncing higher. Recall that on Friday, following the U.S. jobs report, price slipped below this same 200-bar average but found willing buyers near the 100-day moving average at 1.37626 (lower blue line on the chart above).
Since the successful test of the 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart, the rebound has carried the pair back above a third key reference point—the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.3814. Together, these three levels—the 100-day MA (1.37626), the 200-bar MA on the 4-hour (1.37844), and the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour (1.3814)—form the pivotal zone that will guide the bias in the new trading week.
As long as price can stay above this cluster and extend away from the higher 100-bar 4-hour average, the outlook tilts more bullish. Conversely, a sustained break back below the 100-day moving average at 1.37626 would shift the bias to the downside and re-open the door for further declines.
So far, despite the declines from Friday's close, the support has held keeping the buyers in play and in more control.
