The U.S. dollar is moving lower at the start of the North American session after early-session gains were fully erased. As U.S. traders entered, the tone shifted decisively, with downward pressure on yields helping to weigh on the greenback. The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by 3.3 basis points at 4.131%, a notable pullback considering that just yesterday it briefly pushed above 4.20% ahead of the FOMC decision.
Falling yields continue to be a key driver behind the dollar’s retreat as fixed-income markets reassess the Fed’s path into 2026.
FOMC Recap: A Divided Vote and a Lower-Rate Narrative
The Federal Reserve delivered the widely expected 25 bp rate cut, but the vote revealed deeper divisions within the committee:
9 members supported the 25 bp cut
1 member voted for a more aggressive 50 bp cut
2 members — Goolsbee and Schmid — preferred no change
Chair Powell emphasized that policy is now “in a good place” and approaching neutral, a characterization that helped push yields sharply lower after the announcement. Powell said inflation remains above target, but argued that without the tariff effects, inflation would already be at 2%.
He described tariffs as a “one-time impact”, implying inflation will fall as long as tariffs don’t increase further.
Markets quickly leaned into the dovish interpretation, and rate-cut probabilities for June 2026 have surged above 80%, especially as the incoming Fed chair has signaled support for a lower-rate environment.
Importantly, all 12 voting members — including regional presidents — hold equal decision-making power, underscoring that the policy shift is being shaped by a broader committee, not just the Chair’s influence.
Technical Outlook: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD
In the accompanying video, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) walk through the major USD pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD — detailing:
Key bias levels that define directional preference
Risk parameters traders should monitor as intraday catalysts
Upside and downside target zones based on recent swing structures and moving-average dynamics
These technical frameworks help traders shape their roadmap for the North American session, especially as volatility increases around shifting yield expectations.
U.S. Equities: Indices Rally Post-FOMC, but AI Takes a Hit
U.S. stocks finished solidly higher following the Fed announcement:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.05% (new record close)
S&P 500: +0.67%
NASDAQ: +0.33%
Russell 2000: new record close as well
The initial relief rally is now being tested by renewed concerns in the AI sector following Oracle’s earnings.
Oracle Earnings: Strong EPS, Weak Guidance, and Heavy Capex Shock
Oracle reported EPS of $2.26, easily beating the $1.64 estimate, but revenue missed slightly at $16.06B vs. $16.19B expected. The real impact came from guidance and spending:
Why the Market Reacted Bearishly
Oracle slumped 13% premarket after issuing weaker-than-expected forward guidance.
Capex surged to a record $12B last quarter (vs. $8.4B expected).
Full-year capex guidance was boosted sharply from $35B to $50B.
While aggressive capex has historically benefited Nvidia and other chipmakers by supporting AI-infrastructure demand, investors now fear the spending curve may be unsustainable. Compounding concerns, Oracle indicated it plans to secure chip supply from Nvidia competitors, an added blow to sentiment.
AI-Related Stocks Under Pressure
Nvidia: –1.4% premarket at ~$181.25
Broadcom: –1.12%
Micron: –1.12%
Intel: –1.28%
AMD: –1.26%
The reaction has reignited broader AI-bubble fears and is weighing on the major indices.
Index Futures and U.S. Yield Snapshot
Futures Ahead of the Open
Dow: +13.25 points
S&P 500: –20.68 points
NASDAQ: –126 points
Treasury Yields — Early North American Levels
2-year: 3.532% (–3.3 bps)
5-year: 3.709% (–4.5 bps)
10-year: 4.133% (–3.3 bps)
30-year: 4.778% (–1.7 bps)
The curve is seeing a broad softening in yields, reinforcing the dollar’s bearish tone.
Commodities and Digital Assets
Crude Oil: –$0.66 at $57.80
Gold: –$20 at $4207
Silver: +$0.47 at $62.18 and on pace for another record
Bitcoin: –$2,000 at $90,020
Silver remains the standout, continuing its record-setting streak.
Upcoming U.S. Data: Initial Jobless Claims
At 8:30 AM ET, the U.S. will release weekly initial jobless claims:
Expected: 220K
Prior: 191K (likely distorted by the Thanksgiving holiday)
Markets will be watching closely for normalization after last week’s surprise drop
