The USDCAD is starting New York stuck in a tight 19-pip box between 1.3905 and 1.3924, chopping around the rising 100-hour MA at 1.39178. That moving average is acting like a pivot as the market consolidates and waits for a catalyst. The constructive tell so far: today’s dip held above the top of the 1.3917–1.3904 swing area, keeping an upside lean intact. As long as price holds above 1.3917–1.3904, buyers have the tactical edge and can keep probing the topside; a sustained break above 1.3924 would signal that buyers have wrestled back control and could extend toward recent highs. Conversely, slipping back into and below 1.3917–1.3904 would flip the intraday bias lower and put the rising 200-hour MA near 1.38648 back on the map as the next downside attraction.
Key levels
Range: 1.3905 – 1.3924 (19 pips)
Intraday pivot: 100-hour MA 1.39178
Support zone (bias line): 1.3917–1.3904 — hold = bullish tilt; break = bearish shift
Bearish target if broken: 200-hour MA ~1.38648
Trigger up: Above 1.3924 on closing basis to open the door for further upside
There is room to roam. Look for a break and momentum run.
