USDCAD moved lower alongside the broader USD in the early Asian-Pacific session, extending the decline toward the 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 1.36517. That level — previously broken to the upside — acted as a key technical support zone. Sellers pushed into it, but downside momentum began to stall, signaling profit-taking and a lack of fresh selling pressure at that retracement.
From there, the pair rebounded. The recovery carried price back above the 100-hour moving average at 1.3676, shifting short-term control back toward the buyers. Reclaiming that moving average was an important technical step, as it had served as a pivot during recent sessions.
However, the bounce lacked follow-through. Upside momentum faded ahead of the next key resistance level — the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range at 1.37045. That level remains a critical ceiling. Notably, last week the pair attempted to break above that 50% retracement on both Thursday and Friday, only to see rallies stall and reverse. That repeated failure reinforces its importance.
In the near term, the technical battle lines are clearly drawn:
Above the 100-hour MA (1.3676): Buyers retain a modest edge.
Below 1.36517 (38.2%): Sellers regain downside momentum.
Above 1.37045 (50% retracement): Buyers gain stronger control and shift the broader tone more bullish.
For now, buyers have stabilized the pair, but a sustained move above 1.37045 is needed to build confidence and confirm a stronger upside bias.
