The USD is mostly lower to start the US trading day/week (the exception is the vs the JPY after Prime Minister Ishiba's resignation) after the August 2025 U.S. jobs report which showed a sharp slowdown in hiring, with nonfarm payrolls rising just 22,000, well below expectations, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, its highest since 2021. Job losses were seen in manufacturing, construction, and government, offset only by modest gains in healthcare, retail, and leisure. The prior months were revised downward, reinforcing the trend of weakening labor demand. The three-month average of U.S. nonfarm payrolls is currently about 29,000 jobs per month, well below the 12-month average of roughly 122,000. This sharp slowdown highlights notable labor market weakness and adds dovish pressure on the Federal Reserve as it considers rate cuts.
Markets reacted swiftly—Treasury yields tumbled, equities and gold rallied, the USD fell and futures priced in a near-certain 25 bps Fed rate cut at the September 17 meeting, with additional easing likely by year-end. Overall, the report was dovish for the Fed, though CPI and PPI will be releases which could still limit the Fed's ability to go too hard on easing.
A look at the change in the USD vs the major currencies current shows:
- EUR -0.11%
- JPY +0.24%
- GBP -0.20%
- CHF -0.34%
- CAD -0.22%
- AUD -0.56%
- NZD -0.75%
Over the weekend, Japan Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation following a wave of electoral defeats that stripped the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of its majority in both houses of Japan’s parliament.
Despite having just sealed a critical U.S.–Japan trade deal that eased automotive tariffs and secured major Japanese investments in the U.S., Ishiba said he would step down to take responsibility for the party’s losses and to preclude a divisive leadership fight. His departure ushers in a period of political uncertainty for Japan—compounded by a lingering fundraising scandal that had eroded public trust.
Key contenders to succeed him include figures like Sanae Takaichi, Shinjiro Koizumi, Yoshimasa Hayashi, and Toshimitsu Motegi. Markets have responded yen weakening, stock indices rallied on hopes of clarity, and bond yields spiked amid the leadership vacuum.
Looking at the trading week ahead, the highlights on the economic calendar will include the PPI and CPI data on Wednesday and Thursday. In addition, the ECB will meet with expectation of no change in rates. Below is a list of the key releases this week.
Wednesday, September 10
USD Core PPI m/m — Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.9%
USD PPI m/m — Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.9%
NZD RBNZ Gov Hawkesby Speaks
Thursday, September 11
EUR Main Refinancing Rate — Forecast: 2.15% | Previous: 2.15%
EUR Monetary Policy Statement
USD Core CPI m/m — Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
USD CPI m/m — Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
USD CPI y/y — Forecast: 2.9% | Previous: 2.7%
USD Unemployment Claims — Forecast: 234K | Previous: 237K
EUR ECB Press Conference
Friday, September 12
GBP GDP m/m — Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.4%
USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment — Forecast: 58.0 | Previous: 58.2
USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations — Forecast: 4.8% | Previous: (not shown, likely prior month level)
Also over of the weekend, Pres. Trump said that Warsh, Waller, and Hassett were leading the way for Fed chair nomination.
Looking at other markets to kickstart the new trading week in the US session, the major US stock indices are trading higher:
- S&P index up 9.75 points
- Dow industrial average up 50.14 points
- NASDAQ index up 67.56 points
In the US debt market, yields are lower:
- 2-year yield 3.492%, -1.4 basis points
- 5 year yield 3.571%, -1.2 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.072%, -1.4 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.751%, -2.2 basis points
in other related markets:
- Crude oil is up $1.32 or 2.15% at $63.21
- Gold is trading to a new record high. The price is currently up $30 or 0.85% at $3616.04
- Silver is also higher by $0.28 or 0.71% at $41.23. That the highest level since 2011.
- Bitcoin is trading up $852 at $111,996. The price closed on Friday at $110,669.
