The USD is mostly higher - but modestly - to start the new trading day and the week. Looking at the changes vs the USD:
- EUR +0.15%
- JPY +0.16%
- GBP -0.15%
- CHF +0.15%
- CAD +0.04%
- AUD +0.21%
- NZD +0.14%
ECB members were speaking today. ECB’s de Guindos said inflation is expected to continue converging toward the ECB’s target, even as uncertainty—while reduced—remains a defining feature of the current environment. He noted that the upcoming Financial Stability Review will emphasize three major risks, with the first centered on the possibility of financial market corrections and abrupt shifts in sentiment. Fiscal vulnerabilities also persist, and banks could face deterioration in credit quality despite their current resilience, which is supported by strong profits and capital buffers. De Guindos warned that adverse economic shocks may lead to rising corporate defaults, valuation corrections, and losses for private funds and their investors.
ECB officials offered a generally steady and reassuring message on policy. Sleijpen said that inflation risks in the Euro area are broadly balanced and that current monetary policy is “in a good place,” suggesting no urgency to shift the stance. Makhlouf echoed that view, also describing policy as appropriately positioned, while emphasizing that significant uncertainty still surrounds the outlook, making a meeting-by-meeting approach essential. He added concerns about the financial stability risks posed by stablecoins and stressed the need for a regulatory framework capable of managing those risks.
Swiss GDP came in at -0.5% vs +0.01% last quarter. The USDCHF has had an up, down and back up day as it approaches its falling 100 hour MA. The pair has been moving lower since early November but did find buyers near the mid-October low on Friday before bouncing higher.
What about US data? There is some releases starting today with the August construction spending (it is November so don't get too excited):
August
US Census Bureau to release August International Trade on November 19.
August construction spending to be released November 17.
August manufacturers' orders to be released November 18.
BEA to release August US International Trade in Goods & Services on November 19.
October
US Commerce Department to release US Q3 GDP (2nd reading) on November 26 at 08:30 EST (13:30 GMT).
October PCE to be released November 26 at 10:00 EST (15:00 GMT).
October Trade report to be released December 4 at 08:30 EST (13:30 GMT).
November PCE to be released December 19 at 10:00 EST (15:00 GMT).
September
US BLS announces September NFP release for November 20, 2025.
September real earnings to be released November 21.
Canada CPI will be released today.
In the US pre-market, indices are little changed:
- Dow INdustrial average -31.48 points
- S&P -1.36 points
- Nasdaq index unchanged.
In the US debt markets, yields are modestly lower:
- 2 year yield 3.608%, -0.6 basis points
- 5-year yield 3.722%, -1.2 basis points
- 10-year yield 4.138% -0.7 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.743% -0.2 basis points
