The USD is mixed with the greenback moving lower vs the EUR and the GBP (both are higher) but still higher vs the JPY. The USD is moving lower to kickstart the North American session as Fed's Waller (dove) says he favors a cut in rates at the December meeting. Recall Waller was an initial dissenter along with Bowman and Miran early on.
In the video above, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs from a technical perspective. What are the key levels in play and why?
President Trump "Truth Social-ed" this morning arguing that U.S. tariffs are generating massive revenues but that many companies avoided early tariff costs by stockpiling goods—something he says is now ending. He warns that tariff payments will soon “skyrocket,” leading to record U.S. income and strengthening national security and wealth, while accusing opponents of serving foreign interests. Trump says he looks forward to a Supreme Court decision that will allow him to continue his tariff strategy to “Make America Great Again.”. What he did not say is the importer pays the tariff and the prices may now be passed onto the consumer as this batch of goods will be goods purchased with tariffs attached. Meanwhile, DOGE has been officially disbanded.
U.S. stock are pointing to a positive open this Monday, kicking off the Thanksgiving shortened week (the stock market will be closed on Thursday but will be open on Friday. Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures are all trading higher (up between 0.3% and 0.8%), driven largely by increased bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December. This shift in sentiment follows dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams on Friday , which have pushed the probability of a rate cut to near 70%.
A snapshot of the stock market is showing:
- Dow up 173 points
- S&P up 47 points
- Nasdaq up 242 points
Earnings this week include:
Monday, November 24
Zoom Video Communications (ZM): (After Close) – A key update for the software sector to see if enterprise growth is stabilizing.
Agilent Technologies (A): (After Close) – Important for the healthcare/life sciences sector.
Tuesday, November 25 (Busiest Day)
Dell Technologies (DELL): (After Close) – A major focus for AI investors. Wall Street is looking for updates on their AI server backlog and margins.
HP Inc. (HPQ): (After Close) – Often reports alongside Dell; investors will look for signs of PC market recovery.
Best Buy (BBY): (Before Open) – A critical bellwether for holiday consumer spending health just days before Black Friday.
CrowdStrike (CRWD): (After Close) – A major cybersecurity report.
Wednesday, November 26
Deere & Company (DE): (Before Open) – A leading indicator for the industrial and agricultural sectors.
In the US debt market, the yield are mixed.
- 2 year yield 3.530%, +1.7 basis points
- 5 year yield 3.631%, +1.3 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.061%, -0.2 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.697%, -1.8 basis points
Looking at other markets:
- Crude oil is trading up $0.03 at $58.09
- Gold is trading up $20 at $4085
- Silver is trading up $0.34 at $50.32
- Bitcoin is trading down $469 at $86,334. The low price last week reached $80,537 on Friday
