The USD is lower to kickstart the day, new week and new month in the NA session

The USD is lower vs all the major currencies to start the trading day and the trading week in the North American session.

The biggest mover is the USDJPY which has declined by 0.74%. The USD is weaker vs the EUR by 0.34% and the CHF by -0.22% The USD's move vs the GBP (-0.06), CAD (-0.06%), AUD (-0.08%) and NZD (-0.05%) are minimal.

IN the video above, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - and outline the bias, the risks and the targets for traders today.

The USDJPY's big move has been propelled by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaling more clearly than ever that the BOJ is preparing to continue raising interest rates, while still keeping policy broadly accommodative to support Japan’s moderate recovery.

He noted that global economies are showing mild weakness but continue to expand, and that the impact of U.S. tariffs has not yet been as severe as feared, though some temporary global slowdown is still expected. Ueda said that if the BOJ’s projections for growth and inflation keep unfolding as anticipated, the bank will continue lifting rates gradually—describing it as “easing off the accelerator” rather than tightening aggressively.

He highlighted Japan’s improving economic outlook, saying the chance of the baseline scenario playing out is increasing and the recent negative GDP reading should be temporary. Sustained wage momentum remains essential, with next year’s spring wage negotiations and the more than 5% minimum wage hike likely to encourage broader pay increases. On inflation, Ueda expects a temporary dip in core inflation below 2% before it re-accelerates toward the BOJ’s target later in the projection period. He also warned that with firms now more willing to raise wages and prices, currency moves may pass through to inflation more directly than in the past, especially for frequently purchased items like food.

Looking ahead to the December 18–19 meeting, Ueda said the BOJ will evaluate economic conditions, markets, and risks before deciding whether to raise rates, stressing the need for timely but cautious adjustments. The yen strengthened throughout the morning ahead of his remarks and continued rising afterward, underscoring market expectations that a December rate hike is increasingly likely—and perhaps already partly priced in by investors.

The PMI data out of Europe were generally soft, with most countries missing expectations and signaling a sluggish manufacturing backdrop. Spain, Germany, and the broader Eurozone all missed their estimates, pointing to weaker momentum across the region. France and the UK managed to meet expectations, while Italy was the lone bright spot with a beat, edging back into expansion territory. Overall, the results suggest that while pockets of stability remain, European manufacturing is still struggling to gain consistent traction heading into year-end.

• Spain Manufacturing PMI: 51.5 actual vs 52.3 estimate → MISS. Prior 52.1

• Italy Manufacturing PMI: 50.6 actual vs 50.1 estimate → BEAT. Prior 49.9

• France Final Manufacturing PMI: 47.8 actual vs 47.8 estimate → MET. Prior 47.8

• Germany Final Manufacturing PMI: 48.2 actual vs 48.4 estimate → MISS. Prior 48.4

• Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI: 49.6 actual vs 49.8 estimate → MISS. Prior 49.7

• UK Final Manufacturing PMI: 50.2 actual vs 50.2 estimate → MET. Prior 50.2

US stocks are lower in pre-market trading. Each of the major currencies are on a 5-day win streak. That is in jeopardy day. A snapshot of the pre-market levels implied by futures shows:

• Dow -225 points
• S&P
• Nasdaq -250 points

In other markets:

• OPEC+ agreed to keep oil production levels unchanged through the first quarter of 2026, pausing any further output increases as the group monitors signs of a potential supply glut. The alliance also approved a new mechanism to evaluate each member’s maximum sustainable production capacity, which will be used next year to set 2027 quota baselines. The overall tone of the meeting was cautious: after restoring nearly 2.9 million barrels per day since April, OPEC+ is now prioritizing stability to avoid oversupplying the market and putting additional downward pressure on prices. The price of crude oil is up $0.62 at $59.17.
• Gold is up $29 or 0.69% at 44248.14
• Silver is up $0.81 or .45% at $57.22
• Bitcoin is down sharply by - $5000 at $85,375 and risk-off flows. The price last week extended to $93,091