The USD is little changed vs the major currencies to start the NA session. Once again there will be zero economic releases. Today is the last day for Fed officials to speak as the Fed enters its blackout period after today.
A look at the USDs change vs the major currencies shows:
- EUR -0.02%
- JPY -0.19%
- GBP -0.04%
- CHF -0.25%
- CAD -0.12%
- AUD unchanged
- NZD -0.10%
In the video above, I take a technical look at 3 of the major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What do the charts tell traders as the week comes to an end for each.
In other news today, geopolitical news remains high on the list of market influences. Yesterday President Trump spoke with Russia's Putin ahead of his meeting with Ukraine's Zelenskyy, and both leaders indicated that they hope to meet soon.
Today, Russia’s Kremlin said that several key issues must still be addressed by Foreign Minister Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Rubio before a summit between President Trump and President Putin. The meeting could occur within the next two weeks or later, with both sides stressing that no time should be wasted. During their recent communication, Putin reaffirmed Russia’s openness to a negotiated settlement in Ukraine and reiterated Russia’s stance on the delivery of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.
The other key relationship is with China, as both countries turn up the heat. Yesterday USTR’s Greer said China might be looking to decouple from the U.S., which could pose challenges given that rare earths remain a critical piece of the U.S. commodity puzzle. At the same time, China is also heavily reliant on the U.S. to drive its economy. This morning, President Trump said he and China’s Xi will meet in two weeks, adding that the high tariffs on China “will not stand” and that he believes “we will be fine” with China.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown—now in its 17th day—continues, with President Trump threatening to permanently shut down Democratic programs as leverage to reach an agreement.
White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett also spoke today, addressing the broader situation. He expressed confidence in the U.S. economy, stating that there is no reason why 4% growth cannot be sustained. Hassett said that the Federal Reserve’s three rate cuts are a good start in supporting continued expansion. On trade, he emphasized that the U.S. is not in a trade war with China and that he is optimistic both nations can restore a mutually beneficial relationship, though he acknowledged disappointment with some of China’s actions. He added that while China currently holds some leverage, escalating tensions would hurt them more.
On fiscal matters, Hassett warned that if the government shutdown continues beyond the weekend, President Trump is likely to ramp up actions. In discussing credit markets, he noted that banks have ample reserves, optimism can keep markets ahead of the curve, and investors should recognize that a new administration is shaping policy direction.
The broader US stocks are lower in the morning snap shot (but above earlier lows) after giving up earlier gains yesterday and closing down on the day. The Nasdaq is the laggard today.
Dow up 36 points
S&P -7.07 points
Nasdaq -73 points
In the US debt market yields are higher. Yesterday the 10 year yield closed below the 4% and at the lowest levels since October 2024:
- 2 year yield 3.444%, +1.9 basis points
- 5 year yield 3.578%, +2.1 basis points
- 10 year yield 3.993%, +1.7 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.600%, +1.7 basis points
Bitcoin continues to get hammered. The person a $-2369 or -2.19% at $105,837.
Crude oil is also lower once again with the price trading below the $57 level all the way down to $56.15. The low price for 2025 is up $55.15. The current price is trading at $57.07 down $0.41 or -0.73%.
And surprisingly, Gold is down on the day. The current price is down -$31.82 or -0.73% at $4293. Nevertheless the decline did not come for the price reached a new record high at $4380.79 earlier today. Looking at the hourly chart, the price is testing the low of a channel trendline. The high price reached earlier today, extended above the high of the channel, but failed.
