The US dollar is higher with the JPY (0.35%), the NZD (0.40%) and AUD (0.21%) leading the greenbacks corrective move to the upside. The EUR, GBP, CHF, CAD are all little changed but marginally higher. The gains, after the move lower yesterday.
Going into Friday's North American session, the group, the dollar is mixed for the week:
- EUR: -0.09%
- JPY: +0.25%
- GBP: -0.36%
- CHF -0.14%
- CAD: +0.10%
- AUD -1.47%
- NZD -1.09%
The AUD and NZD were boosted by risk-on sentiment. US stocks moved to new all-time records this week with the S&P up 1.63% and the NASDAQ index up 1.58%. Both closed at record levels yesterday along with the Dow industrial average.
In the video above, I take a look at 3 of the 7 major currency pairs from a technical perspective.
Overnight, a number of ECB officials spoke the day after the interest rate decision where the central bank keep rates unchanged for the 2nd consecutive month:
- Rehn cautioned that downside risks to inflation remain, particularly from cheaper energy and a stronger euro. He emphasized that the risk of inflation staying below target should not be underestimated, recalling that the ECB’s latest projections for 2026 HICP (1.7% y/y) came in below both expectations and the 2% target.
- Kocher noted that Austrian inflation remains far above the eurozone average. He said the growth and inflation outlooks have changed little since the meeting, stressing that policy will continue to be decided meeting-by-meeting as the risk landscape evolves. He added that overall risks are balanced.
- Muller stated that interest rates are currently at the right level, suggesting comfort with the ECB’s present policy stance.
- Kazak̦s argued that risks remain elevated, backing a meeting-by-meeting approach. He described the December meeting as “rich,” hinting at significant discussions or decisions ahead.
- Villeroy left the door open to another rate cut in the coming meetings, stressing that upside risks to inflation are less concerning than downside ones. He also said France can and must address its budget issues.
- Simkus countered that inflation has stabilized at target, the labor market is in good shape, and economic activity is stronger than previously observed. Still, he warned that inflation risks remain significantly high.
In geopolitical news, Russian announced a pause in Russia-Ukraine negotiations (surprise, surprise), insisting that Russia poses no threat. It dismissed European concerns over the joint Russia-Belarus ‘Zapad’ military drills as emotional hostility and accused European nations of obstructing peace efforts, while maintaining that Moscow remains open to dialogue. Russian drones violated airspace and were shut this week.
The economic releases the UK data. A mixed but overall weak picture. While there were a few bright spots—construction output and the index of services both came in stronger than expected—the core indicators that matter most for growth momentum and industrial strength were notably poor. GDP stagnated at 0.0%, down sharply from last month’s growth, while industrial production (-0.9%) and manufacturing production (-1.3%) posted steep declines, badly missing forecasts. The goods trade balance also showed a persistently large deficit, slightly worse than expected.
In contrast, Germany’s final CPI release held steady at 0.1%, fully in line with expectations, offering no surprises.
Below are the economic releases from the European session.
Germany Final CPI m/m: 0.1% (in line; forecast 0.1%, prev. 0.1%) – in line with expectations and unchanged from the prior month.
UK GDP m/m: 0.0% (met; forecast 0.0%, prev. 0.4%) – met expectations but a sharp slowdown from the prior month’s growth.
UK Construction Output m/m: 0.2% (beat; forecast -0.2%, prev. 0.3%) – beat expectations, positive reading though slightly softer than prior month.
UK Goods Trade Balance: -22.2B (miss; forecast -21.6B, prev. -22.2B) – deficit widened more than expected, unchanged from prior month’s large deficit.
UK Index of Services 3m/3m: 0.4% (beat; forecast 0.3%, prev. 0.4%) – slightly stronger than expected, holding steady with the prior reading.
UK Industrial Production m/m: -0.9% (miss; forecast 0.0%, prev. 0.7%) – big miss, turning sharply negative after prior strength.
UK Manufacturing Production m/m: -1.3% (miss; forecast 0.1%, prev. 0.5%) – significant downside surprise, reversing prior gains.
Looking at the markets, the major US stock indices are trading mixed with the NASDAQ higher. The S&P and Dow industrial average or lower. All 3 major indices closed at record levels yesterday:
- Dow industrial average -100 points
- S&P index -4.97 points
- NASDAQ index +13.44 point
Gemini the U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange and custodian founded in 2014 by twins Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, who are best known for their early role in the Facebook story and later for becoming major Bitcoin investors. The company will go public on the Nasdaq today.
The company offers a regulated platform for trading, custody, and staking of digital assets, serving both retail and institutional clients, and has expanded into related services like a crypto credit card.
The Gemini shares have been priced at $28 per share—above the marketed range—raising about $425 million through the sale of 15.2 million shares, giving the firm a valuation near $3.3 billion. Demand was intense, with the offering more than 20 times oversubscribed, and Nasdaq itself invested $50 million through a private placement and struck a strategic partnership with Gemini.
Despite its strong market debut, Gemini disclosed that it is not yet profitable, as revenue has slipped and losses have widened in 2025, underscoring both the promise and the risks of investing in a high-profile but still maturing crypto exchange. The shares will trade under the symbol GEMI.
In the US debt market, yields are higher after 3 fairly successful coupon auctions this week:
- 2 year 3.557%, +3.0 basis points
- 5 year yield 3.621%, +4.3 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.049%, +3.8 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.668%, +1.8 basis points
In other markets:
- Crude oil is trading higher by $1.05 at $63.43.
- Gold is up $13 at $3646.66
- Silver is up $0.65 or 1.54% have $42.16 as it continues its climb.
- Bitcoin is trading down $672 at $114,863
