The US Dollar is trading higher heading into the North American session. Investors are positioning themselves ahead of a 8:30 AM ET data dump, which includes Weekly Jobless Claims, Import/Export Prices, and Q4 Unit Labor Cost/Productivity data.
Key Economic Forecasts:
Jobless Claims: 215K expected (vs. 212K previously).
Import/Export Prices: Expected to rise 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.
Unit Labor Costs (Q4): Expected to rebound +2.0% after a -1.9% dip in Q3.
Productivity: Expected to moderate to 1.9% (vs. 4.9% last quarter).
Major Pair Technical Analysis
EURUSD: Range-Bound Consolidation
Despite being down -0.13%, the EURUSD has seen choppy, "two-way" price action.
The Floor: Buyers emerged near yesterday’s low of 1.1576.
The Ceiling: The recovery stalled at 1.1643, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of last week's decline.
The Outlook: The pair remains confined within a 1.1576 – 1.1643 range.
USDJPY: Bulls Reclaim Control
USDJPY saw an early attempt to break lower, but the move failed to reach the 200-hour moving average or the 156.20 support zone.
Resistance: Currently testing the 157.65 – 157.74 zone. A break above opens the door for a retest of the yearly high near 158.00.
Support: To shift the bias back to the downside, the price must break below the 100-hour MA (157.098) and the rising trendline (156.91).
GBPUSD: Sellers Maintain the Edge
The Pound found support near the 1.3300 handle (yesterday’s lows) after an Asian session slide, but the recovery is hitting a wall of resistance.
Key Resistance: The 38.2% retracement at 1.3375 is reinforced by the 100-hour MA at 1.3376.
Bullish Trigger: Buyers need a sustained move above the 100-day MA at 1.3395 to reclaim control.
Bottom Line: Unless those overhead levels are broken, the sellers remain in the driver's seat.
