The USD is higher vs the major currency pair - the EURUSD, USDJPY and the GBPUSD. The move vs the GBP is the greatest with the GBPUSD down -0.41% and trades below the 100 day MA for the first time since early April (at 1.32392 - the current price is at 1.3214). The EURUSD and the USDJPY has been less cooperative technically.
The EURUSD bounced off the 100 hour MA yesterday and was broken to the downside today, but momentum could not be sustaine and the price has moved back above both the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 1.1633 - but just barely (the price is at 1.1634).
The USDJPY saw the price move below the 200 hour MA, but like the EURUSD the break could not be sustained, and the price has moved higher. The rally moved up to test the higher 100 hour MA at 152.559 and found willing sellers. With the price between the 100 and 200 hour MA, between 151.895 and 152.59 is a neutral bias (at least in the short-term).
IN the video, above I take a look at the technicals more in detail for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD with bonus look at the USDCAD.
Overnight, it was announced that China will indeed buy soybeans ahead of the meeting between Trump and Xi tomorrow in So. Korea.
Two central banks meet today and announce their decision with the BOC at 9:45 and the Fed at 2:00 PM. Both are expected to cut rates by 25 basis point. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75–4.00%, with Miran likely dissenting in favor of a 50 bps move, and to announce an end to quantitative tightening. The Fed cut at the last meeting by 25 basis points which was the first cut since the December 2024. The focus with the cut fully priced in, will be on Powell’s press conference, where he’s expected to frame the cut as a precautionary step; however, if he downplays the odds of a December cut, that could lift the dollar. At the last Fed meeting the members did forecast two cuts to the end of year.
The economy is doing well, but with the government shutdown, the true economic picture is not really known. Having said, that the anecdotal stories are pointing toward weaker employment, The WSJ reports today, that the U.S. employers including Amazon, UPS, and Target are cutting tens of thousands of white-collar jobs as artificial intelligence begins to reshape corporate staffing needs. The layoffs mark a shift toward a leaner employment model, where companies rely more on AI and automation to perform tasks once handled by well-paid office workers. Pressure from investors to boost efficiency, combined with economic and political uncertainty, has accelerated these cuts, leaving many displaced professionals facing a stagnant job market. The result is a new corporate landscape where fewer managers oversee larger teams, workloads intensify, and traditional white-collar career paths grow increasingly uncertain.
Job cuts (and hiring) begets job cuts ( and job hires) as companies do not want to be the last to join the trend. As a result, when companies cut, other companies look to do the same. The same is true going the other way. Now it can slow, be absorbed, but the herd tends to go together. That may help to keep the Fed and the Fed chair erring on the side of keeping rates lower/and moving rate lower (at least modestly).
In Canada, the BoC is also expected to lower rates by 25 bps to 2.25%, the bottom of its neutral range, largely due to dovish remarks from Governor Macklem and renewed U.S.-Canada tariff tensions. Despite recent stronger jobs and inflation data, the BoC will likely maintain a dovish stance but could hint at a pause, which might be seen as mildly hawkish but not decisive.
The major indices are modestly higher ahead of Microsoft, Meta and ALphabet. Tomorrow Apple and Amazon will announce their earnings. Today, there was a slew of earnings
Boeing Co (BA) Q2 2025:Adj. EPS –$7.47 (MISS; exp. –$5.53), Revenue $23.3B (BEAT; exp. $21.99B)
ETSY (ETSY) Q3 2025: EPS $0.63 (BEAT; exp. $0.53), Revenue $678M (BEAT; exp. $655.5M)
Phillips 66 (PSX) Q3 2025: Adj. EPS $2.52 (BEAT; exp. $2.40), Net income $1.025B (BEAT; exp. $0.869B)
Garmin (GRMN) Q3 2025: EPS $2.08 (BEAT; exp. $1.96), Revenue $1.77B (IN LINE; exp. $1.75B)
Kraft Heinz (KHC) Q3 2025: Adj. EPS $0.61 (BEAT; exp. $0.58), Revenue $6.24B (MISS; exp. $6.26B)
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Q1 2026: Adj. EPS $2.49 (BEAT; exp. $2.44), Adj. EBIT $1.3B (IN LINE; exp. $1.295B)
CVS Health (CVS) Q3 2025: Adj. EPS $1.60 (BEAT; exp. $1.35), Revenue $102.87B (BEAT; exp. $98.55B)
Verizon Communications (VZ) Q3 2025: Adj. EPS $1.21 (BEAT; exp. $1.19), Revenue $33.8B (MISS; exp. $34.31B)
Caterpillar (CAT) Q4 2025: Adj. EPS $4.95 (BEAT; exp. $4.51), Revenue $17.6B (BEAT; exp. $16.7B)
GE Healthcare (GEHC) Q3 2025: Adj. EPS $1.07 (BEAT; exp. $1.05), Revenue $5.10B (BEAT; exp. $5.09B)
Centene Corp (CNC) Q3 2025: EPS $0.50 (BEAT; exp. -$0.14), Revenue $49.7B (BEAT; exp. $47.47B)**
Looking at the premarket level implied by the futures for the 3 major indices after yesterday's record closes led by Nvidia and the tech sector.
- Dow industrial average up 75 points
- S&P index up 22 points
- NASDAQ index is up 122 points
Looking at the US debt market, yields are higher by a little over 1 basis point:
- 2-year yield 3.504%, +1.0 basis points
- 5 year yield 3.65%, +1.2 basis points
- 10 year yield 3.992%, +1.10 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.557%, +1.1 basis point
looking at other markets:
- Crude oil is trading near unchanged at $60.18
- Gold is rebounding by $73 or 1.85% and is back above the $4000 level at $4025
- Silver is up $1.38 or 2.92% at $48.41
- Bitcoin is trading up $300 at $113,223
Confused by Fed talk? Here’s the plain-English guide you’ve been waiting for.
