The US Dollar is the strongest of the majors to kickstart the North American session, extending the technical breakout we saw yesterday.
The Driver: "Fed Flying Blind" in December? The FX market is repricing the Fed's December path following word that the BLS will delay the November jobs report until December 16—that is after the FOMC decision on Dec 10.
The Takeaway: Traders are betting the Fed won't risk a rate change in a data vacuum.
The Data Trap: We do get the September jobs report today, but let’s be real—that is old news. The market is looking past it, focusing entirely on the technicals and the December data gap.
Technicals in Play (Video Preview): In today’s video, I outline the bias-shifting levels you need to watch for the EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD. If we break these specific swing areas, the bias flips. I also take a look at the targets that traders can follow.
Nvidia reignites the AI trade Risk sentiment is holding up in stocks thanks to Nvidia (NVDA). The chip giant crushed earnings yesterday and—more importantly—delivered guidance well above expectations.
NVDA is up 5% in pre-market to $195.88 (still chasing that $213.19 ATH from October).
The "Nvidia Effect" is lifting the entire tech complex, repairing some of the technical damage from the last month of selling:
SMCI: +6.14% (Leading the pack)
AMD: +4.53%
Palantir: +3.92%
Broadcom: +3.34%
Oracle: +3.09%
Micron: +2.59%
Google: +2.38%
Tesla: +2.21%
Intel: +1.97%
Amazon: +1.57%
Meta: +1.51%
Microsoft: +1.26%
Looking at the pre-market expectations for the major indices:
- Dow industrial average +294 points
- S&P index +85 points
- NASDAQ index up 427.74 points
In the US debt market, yields are higher:
- 2-year yield 3.610%, +1.3 basis points
- 5 year yield 3.722%, +1.4 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.144%, +1.3 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.756%, +0.5 basis points
Crude oil fell sharply yesterday after reports that the US was working with Russian for an alternative peace deal with Ukraine. Today the price has bounced back higher with the current price up $0.66 at $59.92.
In addition to the September jobs report, initial jobless claims will be released at 830 with expectations of 230K vs 232K last. The claims are expected at 1.951M vs 1.957M last.
Philadelphia Fed business index for November is expected to rise to 2.0 from -12.8 Canada PPI data for the month of October will also be released at 8:30 AM ET with expectations of 0.3% versus 0.8% last month..
