The USD is little changed vs the major currency pairs including the top 3- the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. In the video above, I take a look at those three major currency pairs from a technical perspective outlining the key levels in play for traders today and explain why those levels are of significance.
Overnight, the RBA’s July meeting minutes revealed that while the board agrees further rate cuts are warranted over time, the focus is now on the timing and extent of easing. The majority chose to hold the cash rate at 3.85%, preferring to wait for more confirmation of a sustained inflation slowdown and citing firmer-than-expected labor and inflation data. A minority favored an immediate cut, arguing inflation was already tracking toward target. Overall, the minutes reinforce a cautious easing bias, with a data-dependent approach likely going forward.
In other central bank news, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey remarked that the UK’s experience with a steeper yield curve is consistent with global trends. He attributed the steepening primarily to increased uncertainty surrounding trade and fiscal policies, both in the UK and abroad. In a separate set of comments, Bailey noted that shorting the US dollar has become the most crowded trade in the market, with long-term investors showing a reduced appetite for dollar-denominated assets. He cautioned that this dynamic needs close monitoring, particularly since the dollar had seen sustained weakness over recent months, though that downward trend has recently lost momentum—raising the possibility of a continued short squeeze..
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak during the Fed’s blackout period because he’s delivering opening remarks at a Fed-hosted regulatory conference on capital frameworks for large banks. While the speech is expected to stay focused on banking regulation rather than monetary policy, it’s still worth watching—just in case he strays into market-sensitive territory.
PS Mohamed El-Erian in an X post this morning is saying the chair should resign "to safeguard the Fed's operational autonomy". So be bullied into submission saves the operational autonomy. The world is in a weird place. Maybe the chair will resign today at his conference (/S.. but who knows)
The futures are implying little changed in the major US indices to start the trading session:
- Dow industrial average up 4.93 points
- S&P index +9.40 points
- NASDAQ index +3.69 points
Call the US stock market unchanged.
In the European indices, the major indices are lower with German DAX and France's CAC under the most pressure:
- German DAX, -1.08%
- France's CAC -0.75%
- UK's FTSE 100 -0.10%
- Spain's Ibex, -0.15%
- Italy's FTSE MIB -0.20%
In the US debt market, yields are modestly higher after moving sharply lower yesterday.
- 2-year yield 3.852%, unchanged
- 5-year yield 3.909%, +0.2 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.371%, +0.2 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.943%, +0.6 basis points
On the economic calendar today,
- The Richmond Fed composite index for July will be released at 10 AM. Recall the Philly Fed index came in stronger-than-expected last week. Last month the index came in at -7 while the services index came in at -4 and the manufacturing shipments or at -3.
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