The USD is mixed vs the major currencies with gains vs the EUR (0.10%), CHF (+0.06%), CAD (+0.06%) and declines vs the JPY (-0.63%), GBP (-0.20%) , AUD (-0.30%), and NZD (-0.17%).
The JPY is the biggest mover after the Bank of Japan signaled a cautious path forward, balancing political uncertainty with economic progress. While policymakers are expected to leave rates unchanged at the September 19 meeting, they still see a chance of a hike before year-end as steady progress is made toward their price target and a recent U.S. trade deal reduces growth risks. At the same time, sources suggest the BoJ is likely to slightly reduce purchases of super-long Japanese government bonds in Q4 2025, with a final decision due September 30. That move will depend on the outcome of the 20-year government bond auction on September 17 and volatility in long-dated JGB yields. The yen firmed on the headlines, though markets had already priced in no September hike and roughly a 50% probability of tightening later this year.
In the video above, I take a technical look at the USDJPY along with the other 2 major currency pairs - the EURUSD, and GBPUSD. What clues has the price action today given traders in regard to bias (bullish, risk, and targets) and explain why.
Yesterday, the US yields moved lower with a move to flattter yield curve after the more recent steepening trend. Today, the yields are higher with a minimal change in the yield curve:
- 2-year yield 3.523%, +2.8 basis points
- 5 year yield 3.593%, +2.4 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.072%, +2.6 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.722%, +3.2 basis points
In premarket trading in the futures market, the major US stock indices are trading higher. Recall yesterday the NASDAQ index closed at a new record high. The snapshot of the market implied by the futures currently shows:
- Dow industrial average up 82 points
- S&P index up 13.10 points
- NASDAQ index up 47.2 points
Apple will introduce its new “Awe-Dropping” iPhone 17 and related products. Shares are currently down -0.10% in premarket trading, but are up 16.5% since the early August low. That is the good news. The not so good is that the shares are still down -5.01% for the year.
Shares of Nebius are trading up 54% in premarket trading after the company secured a massive $17.4–$19.4 billion GPU infrastructure deal with Microsoft, fueling explosive investor enthusiasm. In its last earnings report the company reported revenues of $105.1 million within EPS of $-0.38. The stock is currently trading at $99.30 up from a closing level of $64.06.
Oracle shares are trading up 1.38% in the premarket; investors are upbeat ahead of its Q1 earnings release expected after the close, with analysts projecting EPS of $1.48 on $15B in revenue. Shares of Oracle are up 43.11% this year.
The snapshot of other markets currently shows:
- Crude oil is trading up $0.65 at $62.84.
- Gold is trading up $18.64 to another record level. The price is trading at $3654.80.
- Silver is down $0.09 at $41.23
- Bitcoin is trading up $621 at $112,719.
On the economic calendar there is no scheduled economic data. At 1 PM ET, the U.S. Treasury will auction off 3 year notes.
