The USD is pushing higher to kick off the Friday session. Stocks are trading lower, yields remain stubbornly elevated with the 10-year hovering near 4.30%, and oil prices are choppy but modestly lower.
In today’s video, I break down the three major currency pairs from a technical perspective—highlighting the bias, key risks, and the levels that matter most heading into the session.
For EURUSD, the pair surged higher yesterday, breaking above the 100-hour MA, the 200-hour MA at 1.15386, and a key swing area between 1.1542 and 1.1549. That upside momentum extended toward the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the February high, with price reaching 1.1615 before sellers stepped in aggressively, driving a sharp rotation lower into the close.
That downside momentum carried into today’s session, with price moving back toward the 200-hour MA (now at 1.15286). The low reached 1.1535 before finding buyers and bouncing modestly.
The broader range is now clearly defined:
Resistance: 38.2% retracement at 1.1608
Support: 200-hour MA at 1.15286
In between, a near-term swing area between 1.1542 and 1.1555 will act as a key battleground. Holding above keeps buyers in play; a move below shifts control back to the sellers.
For USDJPY, the key barometer today is the cluster of moving averages—the 200-hour MA at 158.90 and the 100-hour MA at 158.96. The price rebounded into that zone earlier today and, once again, found willing sellers leaning against the resistance.
Yesterday’s move was telling. The pair broke below both of those MAs, along with a key channel trendline, accelerating the downside momentum to a low near 157.50. That shift tilted the near-term bias more bearish.
For today, 158.55 is the short-term bias-defining level.
Below 158.55, sellers maintain control, and the rejection near the MA cluster gains credibility.
Above 158.55, the downside momentum stalls, and a retest of the 100- and 200-hour MAs near 158.90–158.96 becomes more likely.
In short, the MA cluster above remains a ceiling for now—but only if sellers can keep price below 158.55.
For GBPUSD, the pair surged higher yesterday, breaking above both the 100-day MA at 1.3397 and the 200-day MA at 1.3434, before stalling at the next key target—the 50% retracement of the move down from the February high at 1.3465.
From there, the price rotated lower. The initial move back below the 200-day MA found support at the 100-day MA, but the rebound stalled once again near the 200-day MA, where sellers leaned. That selling pressure carried into the European session today, pushing the pair below the 100-day MA and down to a low of 1.3362.
However, buyers have stepped back in, and the price is now rebounding toward the 100-day MA (currently near 1.3387).
That level will be the key barometer for the day:
Above 1.3387, buyers regain control and can target a move back toward the 200-day MA at 1.3434.
Below 1.3362, sellers take back control, with the next downside target at the 200-hour MA near 1.3349.
In short, the battle around the 100-day MA will set the tone for GBPUSD today.
