Bullish above: 6716
Bearish below: 6713
Primary bias: Bearish while under 6713
Partial targets (bears): 6709.25, 6705.25, 6702.75, 6698, 6691.25
Partial targets (bulls): 6717.75, 6721, 6729.5
S&P 500 Market Context & Directional Bias
At the time of this analysis, E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) trade at 6711.5, about 0.16% below Friday’s close. Despite today’s early hesitation, the broader S&P 500 trend remains constructive: the index is up over 10% in three months, 15% in six months, and 16.2% year-on-year.
For intraday traders, the bearish threshold at 6713 is already in play, as price is below it. This activates the downside roadmap unless buyers reclaim the line. On the other side, bulls only gain confirmation above 6716, where upside targets open.
Today’s S&P 500 Futures Key Levels & Partial-Profit Strategy
Bearish Roadmap
6709.25 → Friday’s VWAP overlapping with Thursday’s Value Area High.
6705.25 → Liquidity pool from Friday, likely to attract flow.
6702.75 → Friday’s Value Area Low, adding downside weight.
6698 → Extension target for intraday shorts.
6691.25 → Final day-trading bearish target. Swing sellers can extend toward 6663 once earlier levels are secured.
Bullish Roadmap
6717.75 → Initial upside checkpoint for breakout trades.
6721 → Friday’s Point of Control (POC), where heavy trading took place.
6729.5 → Friday’s Value Area High, capping today’s bullish stretch.
Reminder: Once TP2 is reached, stops should be moved to entry (breakeven) to safeguard gains and manage any runner.
Broader Market Backdrop Affecting the S&P 500
The S&P 500 does not trade in a vacuum. Today’s subdued start is echoed across assets: major currencies held muted while Eurostoxx futures opened flat.
Meanwhile, volatility resurfaced in digital assets with cryptocurrencies crashing into the EU open. Traders are also bracing for catalysts highlighted in our main events preview.
This cross-market context underlines why today’s S&P 500 technical analysis is best read within a global framework. Visit investingLive.com, formerly ForexLive.com, for additional views.
Educational Corner: VWAP, Value Area & tradeCompass
The VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) serves as an intraday benchmark of fair value. Trading above VWAP often signals buyer strength, while trading below it reflects seller control.
The Value Area, defined by the VAH (Value Area High) and VAL (Value Area Low), contains about 70% of the previous day’s trading activity. These zones frequently act as natural turning points.
The tradeCompass approach defines bullish and bearish thresholds, then maps logical profit-taking points such as VWAP, POC, and liquidity pools. This structure helps traders avoid guesswork while securing gains. Stops are always set just beyond the entry-side threshold (with a small buffer), never beyond the opposite threshold, since that breach invalidates the trade setup.
Trade Management Rules for Today’s S&P 500 Futures Plan
One trade per direction per tradeCompass roadmap.
Secure partial profits at logical targets.
After TP2, stops move to breakeven.
Stops are close to the activation threshold, but never past the opposite threshold.
Entry confirmation is flexible — candle closes, retests, or trader-specific setups.
Professional Disclaimer
This S&P 500 analysis is intended for educational and decision-support use only. It is not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always trade with caution and adapt strategies to your own risk tolerance.
