S&P 500 Technical Analysis for Today with tradeCompass (October 20, 2025)
Bullish above: 6,716
Bearish below: 6,709
Current price: 6,718.5
Primary Bias: Slightly bullish
Partial Targets: 6,724 → 6,728.5 → 6,737 → 6,743 → 6,757.5
S&P 500 Performance Snapshot
| Period | Performance |
|---|---|
| 1 Week | +1.33% |
| 1 Month | +0.30% |
| 3 Months | +5.88% |
| 6 Months | +24.91% |
| Year-to-Date | +12.96% |
| 1 Year | +14.13% |
The index’s performance remains resilient on a multi-month basis, with the six-month gain of nearly 25% underscoring the strong risk appetite seen through much of 2025 despite recurring volatility.
Friday, we also had a significant move (crash?) on previous metals and I wrote about Palladium analysis in my video this morning, as this may also play out as a hint going forward for the S&P 500.
S&P 500 Market Context & Directional Bias
At the time of this analysis, E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) trade at 6,718.5, just above the bullish threshold at 6,716, which aligns with today’s Point of Control (POC) and yesterday’s Value Area High (VAH). This confluence provides a structural support zone for short-term bulls.
However, traders are still digesting the sharp drop from Friday, October 10, when former U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff-related tweet about China sparked a broad selloff. That move rattled market sentiment and left traders split:
Bears argue the S&P 500 has become overextended and ripe for another correction.
Bulls frame it as a “taco trade,” a pattern they’ve seen before—Trump issues a tough statement, markets dip, and then rebound once he softens his stance.
The tradeCompass methodology helps navigate precisely these confusing environments. Rather than betting on one narrative, we define clear key levels for both bullish and bearish setups, letting price action confirm which side takes control.
Today’s S&P 500 Futures Key Levels & Partial-Profit Strategy
Upside (Bullish Path):
• 6,724 – First partial-profit zone under a liquidity pool, ideal for quick risk reduction.
• 6,728.5 – Next level of interest, often acting as short-term resistance where intraday traders take partial gains.
• 6,737 – Third target, corresponding to an area of recent high trading activity.
• 6,743 – Level matching the October 15 VAH, a notable resistance cluster.
• 6,757.5 – Final upside target, aligning with the second upper VWAP deviation (Oct 16) and just below the October 15 high.
Downside (Bearish Path):
If ES closes below 6,709, bias shifts bearish.
• 6,704 – Initial liquidity pocket and first downside scalp target.
• 6,698 – Next potential reaction zone from previous absorption.
• 6,672 – Deeper swing-level target.
• 6,660 – Final extension zone; high reward but higher risk.
Educational Insight – The Value Area
The Value Area marks where roughly 70% of all trading volume occurred during a session. It gives traders a sense of where the market has found fair value.
The Value Area High (VAH) shows where buyers previously stopped accepting higher prices.
The Value Area Low (VAL) shows where sellers stopped pushing lower.
The Point of Control (POC) represents the single price level with the most traded volume—often acting as a magnet for price retests.
Professional traders use these zones to identify whether value is shifting higher or lower, indicating potential trend continuation or market balance. In the tradeCompass approach, VAH, VAL, and POC form the foundation for directional bias and partial-profit mapping.
Trade Management Reminders
Take only one trade per direction per tradeCompass plan.
After hitting TP2, move your stop to breakeven to protect your gains.
Avoid placing stops beyond the opposite threshold (6,709 in this case).
Confirmation methods may vary: some prefer waiting for a candle close above/below a threshold, while others act immediately when conditions are met.
Professional Reminder for S&P 500 Traders Today
This tradeCompass report is a decision-support tool, not investment advice. All trading carries risk, and results can differ significantly from expectations. Always align trades with your personal risk tolerance and management strategy.
