Bullish above: Conditional: down through 6,670 then back above 6,672, or clean break above 6,706
Bearish below: 6,694
Primary Bias: Bearish while below 6,694
Partial Targets: 6,679 • 6,684 (POC) • 6,693 • 6,700
S&P 500 Market Context & Directional Bias
At the time of writing, S&P 500 futures trade near 6,685—already inside bearish territory per today’s compass line at 6,694. That aligns with price holding below yesterday’s value area low. The nearer, higher-probability bullish path is the condition trigger: if futures first wash down toward 6,670 and then reclaim 6,672, the bullish threshold activates; otherwise, a straight break above 6,706 also flips the bias. Liquidity may be thinner in Asia hours due to China’s Golden Week closures, which can affect overnight flows into the European/US handoff.
Today’s Key Levels & Partial-Profit Plan for S&P 500 Futures Traders
6,679 — First relief target for a triggered long; local liquidity pocket just above the bearish activation zone.
6,684 — Point of control for today; an expected pause area where inventory often rebalances.
6,693 — Pre-bearish line retest; into prior balance edge where responsive sellers may reload.
6,700 — Round-number magnet; late longs often take profits, and fades can appear.
Bearish re-engagement note: With bias already bearish, consider patience: a pop toward ~6,695 that fails back below 6,693 keeps shorts cleaner than selling “the middle” and needing a wide stop.
What else is moving markets (quick scan)
Europe opens softer — European indices mostly lower to kick start the session: US futures weakness and shutdown jitters weigh on tone; EuroStoxx -0.2%, DAX -0.3%, while FTSE ekes a small gain. “It’s a stuttering start to the new month.”
EuroStoxx futures slip — Eurostoxx futures -0.1% in early European trading: A “more tepid mood” as shutdown headlines mark down US futures; DAX futures -0.2%, FTSE futures -0.1%.
US futures marked down — US futures hold lower on government shutdown: S&P 500 futures down ~0.5% as traders price operational fallout (data delays to NFP/CPI) more than economic damage; Fedspeak likely to drive expectations.
Gold presses records — Gold pushes to fresh record highs, closes in on $3,900: European morning bid extends a powerful run; price jumped to ~$3,894 and is “closing in on another milestone.”
Bitcoin base case — Bitcoin finds a base in a good spot: BTC rose ~2.9% to ~114k, re-establishing a floor above January highs; correlation to Nasdaq has faded, keeping upside catalysts in question.
Educational Corner for Traders: Value Area & POC, fast refresher
The value area low (VAL) marks the lower boundary of where most volume traded yesterday; trading below it often signals sellers in control. The point of control (POC) is today’s highest-traded price so far—think of it as the day’s balance anchor. Both help time partials: trim into POC/VAL retests and reassess if the reaction strengthens or fades.
Trade Management Reminders (tradeCompass)
One trade per direction at a time.
After TP2, move the stop to entry to protect gains and manage the runner.
Confirmation is flexible (e.g., two closes beyond a threshold or a timed hold).
Place stops just beyond the activation side with a small buffer; never beyond the opposite threshold.
If a triggered bullish threshold prints (e.g., reclaim 6,672 after a 6,670 probe) while you’re short, consider reducing or exiting the short.
Clarification on Using the Compass in Trading
Treat thresholds as decision zones rather than guarantees. If price can’t sustain above a bullish line, it often offers a short with tight risk. Persistent trade below the bearish line usually implies a deeper bearish stage. Use partial targets both ways to realize gains and lower exposure while the trade develops.
Professional Disclaimer
This publication is decision support, not investment advice. Markets involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Trade your plan, size responsibly, and adapt when price action invalidates the setup.
