The USD is mixed to start the new trading week in North America. That start will include the stock market which is trading higher as the market reacts to the hostage release in Isreal, and a "new dawn" in the Middle East, but the Bond market will be closed in honor of Columbus Day. Canada is also closed today. The USD is mixed to start the data with gains vs teh EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF but declines vs the AUD. The CAD and the NZD are mixed. In the video above, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs, the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD give the moves to the upside in the greenback. What is the bias, the risk and the target levels in play for each and why.
In the news, the hostages have been released with Pres. Trump saying it is a historice dawn of a new Middle East. He is currently speaking but is also outlining a sweeping vision for regional stability and peace. He said his administration will first work to resolve the Ukraine-Russia conflict, describing that as a necessary step to achieving broader global peace. Trump added that the “forces of chaos” destabilizing the region have been defeated and emphasized that progress will begin with Russia. He announced U.S. support for Lebanon in efforts to disarm Hezbollah and said the entire region has endorsed a plan to disarm Hamas—moves he characterized as part of a unified strategy to end long-standing sources of conflict in the Middle East.
The other news over the weekend that is not so positive, Treasury President Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on imports from China, set to take effect on November 1, 2025, or sooner depending on China’s response. The new tariff will be added on top of existing duties already imposed on Chinese goods, significantly raising the overall cost of imports. Alongside the tariff escalation, the administration is introducing new export controls targeting critical software and technology. Earlier in the year, the U.S. had established a baseline “reciprocal tariff” system, including a minimum 10% rate on most imports and higher country-specific levels. While some tariffs on Chinese goods had previously been reduced during negotiation periods, the new measures mark a sharp re-escalation in trade tensions between Washington and Beijing
Secretary Bessent this mornins has said the U.S. has taken a strong stance against China’s export controls, calling the move provocative but emphasizing that communication channels remain active and constructive. He noted that U.S. officials have already been in contact with allies—including India—and are meeting them this week to coordinate responses. Bessent said China appears open to dialogue, but the U.S. has significant levers it can use if necessary and could move more aggressively than China has. He expressed confidence that tensions can be de-escalated, adding that President Trump is on track to meet with Chinese President Xi in Korea, with additional staff and ministerial-level meetings expected around the World Bank and IMF gatherings. While reaffirming that the U.S. seeks to “de-risk” rather than “decouple,” Bessent cautioned that China’s messaging continues to suggest a shift toward economic separation.
On more local news, Bessent is saying that the shutdown is getting serious and that it is starting to affect the economy.
A snapshot of the US stock market shows that some of the massive declines from Friday have been retraced:
- Dow industrial average up 350 points. On Friday the index fell -878.82 points
- S&P index up 75 points. On Friday the index fell 182.60 points
- NASDAQ index up 415 points. On Friday the index fell -820.20 points. The decline was its worst one-day fall since April.
Crude oil is trading up $0.61 at $50.51. Gold is up $56.27 at $4074.77 the high price today reached another new record at $4085.25 bitcoin is trading at $114,303. It tumbled on Friday falling from a high of $122,382. The low over the weekend reached $109,683.
