Palladium Technical Analysis: Second Attempt After a 14% Collapse in Less Than Two Days
Palladium futures have just recorded one of their sharpest short-term declines in recent memory. After reaching a 50-week high of 1,695 on Thursday, October 16, and a Friday high of 1,692.5, prices plunged to 1,510.5 by the end of that same Friday — a 9.68% intraday drop.
From that Friday high to today’s session low, Palladium has fallen just over 14% in less than a day and a half of futures trading. Such an abrupt decline has left traders asking a difficult question: is this the beginning of a deeper selloff or the setup for a reversal?
Price is currently hovering around the 1,500 round number, a psychological battleground where both buyers and sellers are testing conviction. The speed and magnitude of the drop are unusual for this market, and attention is now focused on whether Palladium can stabilize and build a base above the key levels highlighted by orderFlow Intel.
Before I dive into the order flow persepctive, you can also see the bigger picture from my Palladium Technical Anlaysis Video.
Order Flow Intel Perspective
Our orderFlow Intel analysis, designed to track buyer and seller aggressiveness inside each price range, shows that aggressive selling is finally being absorbed near the lower value area. Despite another wave of red bars, price action has stopped making lower lows, suggesting that sellers are losing effectiveness.
In practical terms, this means that buyers are quietly absorbing supply near the bid, while sellers continue to hit the market without pushing prices materially lower. This type of divergence between delta (net buy/sell volume) and price movement often hints at early accumulation rather than continued liquidation.
Key Technical Picture
Point of Control (POC): 1,489 — This remains the most important short-term reference, serving as a line in the sand between bulls and bears.
Value Area Low (VAL): 1,477 — Also the current session low, confirming this area as the first layer of structural support.
VWAP: 1,501.5 — Price is oscillating just below this volume-weighted mean, located near the psychological round number of 1,500. A sustained close above it would strengthen the bullish recovery case.
Value Area High (VAH): 1,512 — The next breakout threshold; a move above it could open the path toward 1,520–1,535, where the first upper VWAP deviation sits.
Why the Bias Remains Bullish
Although the broader market is still digesting the steep drop, our orderFlow Intel readings show that buyers have been absorbing the most aggressive sell pressure near 1,477–1,489.
This is visible in the delta and volume relationships, which reveal that sellers are still active, but their actions are being offset by hidden demand from larger participants.
That’s why Palladium now carries a Prediction Score of +7 (Bullish Bias / High Confidence) on our scale of −10 to +10. The score reflects a constructive structure with solid buy absorption, even if short-term volatility remains high.
Key Levels to Watch
| Level | Role | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 1,535–1,520 | 1st Upper VWAP Deviation | Upside target zone if breakout holds |
| 1,512 | Value Area High | Break >1,512 → bullish continuation |
| 1,501.5 | VWAP / Round 1,500 | Short-term pivot |
| 1,489 | Point of Control | Key bull-bear dividing line |
| 1,477 | Value Area Low | Structural base and short-term support |
Palladium Price Prediction and the Path to the Technical Recovery
While Friday’s collapse shook out many long positions, current data suggests that institutional buyers may be rebuilding exposure near the lower range.
The 1,489–1,477 region is now the battleground that determines whether Palladium stabilizes or resumes its slide.
If prices can sustain above VWAP and later clear 1,512, a technical recovery toward 1,535–1,555 becomes likely.
For now, Palladium holds a bullish bias, but with traders fully aware that this is a second attempt after a failed long last week and that such setups can carry both high reward potential and meaningful risk.
Disclosure:
This analysis is for educational and decision-support purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Futures trading carries significant risk.
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