The NZDUSD moved higher last week, and in the process extended above its 100-day moving average, signaling an improvement in the near-term technical picture. The upside push carried the pair toward the lower boundary of a key swing area between 0.5830 and 0.5844, an area that has acted as resistance in the past. Sellers leaned against that zone, limiting upside follow-through and forcing a pullback into the end of the week.
Sellers defend resistance, buyers protect support
As the week progressed, selling pressure pushed the pair back toward the 100-day moving average, which acted as a magnet for price action. In early trading today, the downside extended further, with NZDUSD sliding toward the upper boundary of a prior swing area between 0.5748 and 0.57609. The low reached 0.5765, just above that support zone, before buyers stepped in and sparked a rebound.
Natural resistance caps the rebound near 0.5800
The bounce off support has so far been contained by natural resistance near 0.5800, an area that also coincides closely with the 100-day moving average. That confluence has once again proven difficult to overcome, with price stalling near the level and reinforcing its importance as a short-term dividing line between bullish and bearish control.
Short-term range battle mirrors AUDUSD
Like AUDUSD, NZDUSD is currently caught between nearby support and resistance, with neither buyers nor sellers able to assert sustained control. Buyers continue to defend dips toward the mid-0.57 area, while sellers remain active on rallies toward the 0.5800–0.5840 region. The tightening range suggests the market is coiling, as traders wait for the next decisive push to set direction.
Bottom line
NZDUSD sits at a technical crossroads. Holding above the 0.5748–0.5761 support zone keeps buyers engaged, while a break back above the 100-day moving average and the 0.5830–0.5844 resistance area would tilt the bias more decisively higher. Until one of those levels gives way, range-bound trade and patience are likely to dominate the near-term outlook.
Watch the Video Analysis
In the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving this move in real-time. I outline exactly where the risk lies, how to interpret these moving average bounces, and map out the next targets that matter most for the NZD/USD currency pair.
Be aware. Be prepared.
