NZDUSD Rides Risk Momentum After Hawkish RBA Decision
The NZDUSD is trading higher today, supported in part by strength in its sister currency, AUDUSD, which surged after the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a more hawkish-leaning decision. While the overall tone is bullish, the upside move has not been a straight line. Early in the U.S. session, the pair dipped lower, but that pullback found strong support at the rising 100-hour moving average, currently near 0.57744.
Holding above that moving average keeps the short-term bias tilted in favor of buyers, reinforcing the notion that the recent correction was a pause rather than a reversal.
Key Fibonacci Level in Play: 38.2% Retracement as a Battleground
Also important today is the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the July high to the November low, which sits at 0.57835. The price has been oscillating around this level, signaling that the market is testing buyer conviction.
For buyers to remain firmly in control, the ideal scenario is to stay above both the 100-hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement. Holding that dual support zone would keep bullish momentum intact and build the foundation for the next leg higher.
Upside Roadmap: 0.5800 and the 100-Day Moving Average
If NZDUSD remains supported above these key intraday levels, the next upside target lies at the 0.5800 handle—a swing high from October and a key pivot point extending back to August. A break above that level exposes the falling 100-day moving average at 0.5809.
Notably, NZDUSD has not traded above its 100-day MA since mid-September. Reclaiming that longer-term moving average would mark a meaningful shift in trend and could unlock additional upside potential.
Beyond that, traders will look toward the 50% midpoint of the broader July–November decline at 0.58476, a level that would serve as a natural technical magnet if bullish momentum accelerates.
Bottom Line: Buyers Are Making a Move—Now They Must Defend It
Buyers have stepped in and are trying to carve out a more constructive bullish structure.
Staying above the 100-hour moving average is the first requirement.
Breaking and holding above the 100-day moving average strengthens the bullish bias significantly.
If these conditions hold, the NZDUSD has room to extend higher into deeper retracement levels and reestablish a broader upward trajectory.
