Nasdaq's acting like it is expecting some bad CPI data tomorrow

  • Will CPI reach 7%?
NASDAQ index
The NASDAQ index has moved away from the 100h moving average

The Nasdaq index is trading down -257 points or -1.63% at 15529.80. The index is trading is if the CPI YoY data was going to come in above 7% tomorrow. The consensus is 6.8% for the headline number with a MoM increase of 0.7% (following a 0.9% rise last month). Needless to say, a number above 7% would certainly have traders thinking 3 hikes in 2022 as more of a certainty (it is moving that way already with a faster taper as well).

Looking at the hourly chart, the price moved - and closed - above its 100 and 200 hour MAs yesterday. Today, the price traded higher in early trading but started to step lower a short time later.

The 200 hour MA was broken near 15717 and traders started to use that MA as resistance. After some trading above the lower 100 hour MA, but below the 200 hour MA above for a few hours, sellers took control and pushed lower over the last 2 or so hours. The price is looking to test the gap low from Tuesday's trade at 15507 area. The low price just reached all 15515.25. The 50 hour MA is at 15462.34. Those are the next downside targets.

It will take a move back above the 100 hour MA (and then 200 hour MA) to turn the bias around.

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