The US dollar is mixed against the three major currency pairs to start the North American session — stronger versus the EUR and GBP, but weaker against the JPY. The GBPUSD is the standout mover after UK CPI inflation came in softer than expected.
In the video above, I walk through the key technical levels driving these major pairs, outlining the bias, risk, and trade targets for each. I also explain why these levels matter, helping traders recognize and apply the same analytical process themselves.
As noted, UK inflation data was weaker than expected — unchanged month-over-month (vs. +0.2% forecast) and 3.8% year-over-year (vs. 4.0%), with core measures also below expectations.
In Japan, newly appointed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced that economic stimulus will exceed last year’s ¥13.9 trillion, focusing on three pillars: countering inflation, investing in growth industries, and strengthening national security. The Nikkei index slipped modestly after notching a new record high yesterday.
On the geopolitical front, President Trump said he will not meet with Democratic leaders until the government reopens. Meanwhile, his planned meeting with President Putin has been delayed, though Trump maintains that a Russia-Ukraine cease-fire remains possible. The Russian special economic envoy says that preparations continue for the meeting. The risk, however, is that Putin may be manipulating the process, something Trump is keen to avoid repeating after the Alaska failed summit.
Finally, US-China relations remain tense. Trump signaled that his meeting with Xi Jinping may not occur as trade tensions persist, confirming that the 155% tariffs on China will take effect November 1. He added that China cannot sustain tariffs at those levels — though US importers and consumers will also feel the strain.
Major US stock indices are trading modestly lower in premarket trading. Tesla earnings will be released after the close:
- Dow industrial average -28.74 points
- S&P -2.85 points
- NASDAQ index -61 points
Looking at the US debt market, yields are lower with a flatter yield curve for the 2nd consecutive day. The U.S. Treasury will auction off 20 year bonds at 1 PM ET:
- 2-year yield 3.446% -0.8 basis points
- 5 year yield 3.548%, -1.2 basis points
- 10 year yield 3.943%, -2.0 basis points.
- 30 year yield 4.523%, -2.5 basis points.
Looking at other instruments:
- Gold continues its move to the downside after falling over 5% yesterday. The price is down $83 or -2.02% at $4040.
- Silver is trading down $0.72 or -1.44% of $47.96
- Crude oil is higher by $1.16 at $58.41
- Bitcoin is down $8 $53 at $107,519.
