The price of gold has surged to yet another record, extending to a new all-time high at $3832.79. At the moment, it is trading at $3829.22, up $70.21 or 1.87% on the day. With the $3900 mark now $70 away, the market can’t help but also eye the symbolic “Gold 4K” level as a realistic milestone, even as overbought conditions begin to flash warning signs.
The rally is being fueled by a mix of catalysts. Front and center currently is the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, with funding set to expire on October 1 at 12:01 AM ET if lawmakers fail to reach a budget agreement. While history suggests that some resolution will ultimately be made, the political brinkmanship is creating enough uncertainty to keep safe-haven flows alive.
At the same time, geopolitical risks elsewhere continue to feed demand for the precious metal, reinforcing its role as a hedge during times of instability. This steady stream of supportive factors has added to gold’s remarkable run, which now shows a year-to-date gain of nearly 46%.
Looking at the daily chart, the key catalyst for the latest upside run was the successful defense of the 100-day moving average on August 20, when the price bottomed at $3311.62. That technical support gave buyers the confidence to step back in, and since then the market has climbed 15.74% into today’s high. The rebound off such a well-watched long-term average has been the foundation for the sustained bullish momentum.
Zooming into the hourly chart, September price action shows how the market navigated a corrective phase before resuming the uptrend. On September 25 and 26, the price fluctuated around its 100-hour moving average, briefly trading above and below as it consolidated. That hesitation gave way to renewed buying, with the pair extending higher and then successfully retesting the 100-hour moving average on September 28 before launching into its most recent leg to the upside.
As trading progresses, close support now sits near the prior high from September 23 at $3791.08. This area is further reinforced by the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September 24 low, which comes in at $3788.69. Together, these levels create a key near-term floor. A decisive move below both would be an early warning signal that upside momentum is faltering and could give sellers more confidence in at least a short-term corrective pullback.
In news just released:
- Switzerland has offered to invest in the US bold refining industry as part of its efforts to persuade the administration to lower the 39% import tariffs imposed last month.
- Israelis Netanyahu has made to the White House for his meetings with Pres. Trump. Of course there is all sorts of chatter about a 21 point cease-fire deal. So far, all attempts for a peace deal have been met with resistance from both sides.
