Gold and silver have been volatile to start the year so far but the bulls have shown some impressive willingness to buy moderate dips. Now both are flirting with notable closes. Gold is attempting only its second-ever weekly close above $4500 after doing that on December 22 in holiday-thinned trading. Silver is attempting a weekly close above $80 for the first time ever.
Both would be bullish signs.
There was some profit taking after the huge moves in precious metals just after Christmas but they've found a footing in light of geopolitical turmoil. The US capture of Venezulan President Maduro is one factor but I would argue the even larger one is Trump continuing to openly call for the annexation of Greenland.
That's the kind of thing that would certainly cause a schism with Europe and break NATO. It would leave no doubts as to the old world order returning and spark deep uncertainty.
Along with that is the Supreme Court decision on tariffs. We were hoping for some clarity today but we didn't get a decision so we will keep waiting. Aside from the case itself, we will need to find out whether the Supreme Court is just a rubber stamp for the administration. If so, then it raises some troubling questions about the future of the US Constitutional order and whether or not Trump will try to outlast his second term.
In terms of the chart, this is starting to look good for silver. It's managing to consolidate right at/near the top of the recent range. There have been efforts to knock it down towards a deeper retracement but the bids have been waiting. If there's some kind of bullish catalyst (a dovish Fed chair?) then maybe we see a fresh push.
The gold chart is similar, though not nearly as parabolic. It's consolidating just below $4600 but if it can break out, I would expect $5000 to act as a magnet. Note the positive seasonals for precious metals run into February.
