The GBPUSD started the session on the back foot, drifting lower in Asian-Pacific trading as sellers leaned against both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, which acted as near-term resistance. That pressure pushed the pair down toward a familiar swing area between 1.3244 and 1.3252, with the low reaching 1.3258—just shy of that zone.
The tone shifted dramatically following Trump’s Truth Social post.
The pair reversed sharply higher, breaking back above the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, then clearing a key swing area between 1.3362 and 1.3374. Momentum accelerated from there, with price extending above both the 100-day moving average near 1.3400 and the 200-day moving average at 1.34326—a strong bullish signal in the short term.
The rally didn’t stop there.
GBPUSD continued higher, pushing above the 50% retracement of the move down from the February high, before running into resistance within another well-defined swing area between 1.3470 and 1.3488. Sellers leaned against that zone, finally stalling the upside move.
Since peaking, the pair has rotated back lower, retracing toward the earlier breakout area between 1.3362 and 1.3374, which now acts as support.
This leaves the market trading within a defined structure:
- Lower boundary (support): 1.3362–1.3374
- Upper boundary (resistance): 1.3470–1.3488
Between those extremes sit the key daily moving averages:
- 100-day MA: ~1.3400
- 200-day MA: 1.34326
These moving averages now serve as the short-term barometer for directional bias.
- Above the 100- and 200-day MAs: Buyers maintain control, with scope to retest the 1.3470–1.3488 resistance zone
- Below those MAs: Momentum fades, increasing the risk of a move back toward the 1.3362–1.3374 support area
In short, the swing areas define the broader range, while the 100- and 200-day moving averages will guide the next directional move.
