The GBPUSD pair has transformed into a technical battleground as the trading week nears its close. A combination of a divided Bank of England (BoE) and a cooling US inflation report has created a "whipsaw" environment, leaving the price resting precariously on a significant layer of technical support.
The BoE Catalyst: A narrow 5-4 vote for a "hawkish cut" by the Bank of England initially sparked Sterling strength, signaling that the path to future rate cuts remains steep.
The CPI Whipsaw: A soft US CPI print (2.7%) sent the pair to a multi-week high of 1.3446 before a massive retracement saw the pair surrender all daily gains.
The Technical Floor: The price is currently testing a "cluster" of four major moving averages between 1.3348 and 1.3380, a zone that will define the trend for the Friday close.
Breaking Down the Momentum: From Hawkish Cuts to Soft CPI
The initial leg of the GBPUSD rally was fundamentally driven. The Bank of England’s decision to cut rates—but with a clear 5-4 split—indicated to the markets that the BoE is not in a rush to ease aggressively. This "hawkish lean" gave the British Pound a head start against a softening Greenback.
Later, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) added fuel to the fire. The weaker-than-expected inflation data triggered a sharp sell-off in the US Dollar, propelling the "Cable" above a series of key daily and hourly moving averages. This move saw the pair challenge the highs of the last two weeks, specifically testing the Tuesday peak near 1.3455.
The "Moving Average Cluster" Barometer
Despite the breakout, momentum failed to hold. The pair has retraced back into a dense zone where four critical moving averages are currently overlapping. This "cluster" acts as a massive technical pivot point:
100-Hour MA: 1.33804 (The current immediate ceiling)
200-Hour MA: 1.33640
100-Day MA: 1.33616
200-Day MA: 1.33488 (The ultimate floor)
As long as the price remains within or above this zone, the "Up and Down" volatility theme persists. The price action today reached as low as 1.3370 before stabilizing slightly, keeping the market in a state of high suspense.
The Roadmap: What to Watch for the Friday Close
As we transition into the final session of the week, the cluster of moving averages will serve as the primary barometer for directional bias.
The Bullish Scenario
For the buyers to reclaim the driver's seat, they must keep the price sustained above the 1.33804 (100-hour MA). A push above the 1.3405 swing area is required to confirm that the bears have been flushed out. If successful, the door opens for another run toward the recent highs at 1.34526.
The Bearish Scenario
If the sellers gain enough traction to break below the bottom of the cluster at 1.33488 (200-day MA), the technical picture turns decidedly bearish. A break here would likely trigger a retest of the weekly low at 1.33118, with a secondary target at last week's low and the key 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.32833.
Watch the Video Analysis
In the video above, Greg Michalowski, author ofAttacking Currency Trends, provides a deep dive into these GBPUSD technical levels. He breaks down the real-time price action, helps you define the bias, the risk, and the specific targets that will matter most today and going forward.
Be aware. Be prepared.
