For those reading my posts on the GBPUSD, the falling 200 hour MA has been broken over the previous three trading days but each time, the momentum faded and the price dipped back below that MA line. The previous two breaks had lower highs as well.
Yesterday into the close, the price to tested the lower 100 hour moving average (blue line currently at 1.32286). Although the price dipped modestly below the moving average line, the momentum could not be establish, and the price started to move up in the early Asian session.
After testing the 200 hour moving average and stalling, and then holding above the rising 100 hour moving average one of the last time in the narrow trading range (the MAs are converging), the buyers pushed the price above the 200 hour moving average again at 1.3235, and this time extended to the highest level since December 7 at 1.3282. The move to the upside was helped by the stronger than expected CPI.
However, since peaking the price has wandered back to the downside and currently trades at 1.32517. The good news for the buyers on the break of the 200 hour moving average is the price remains above that moving average level. The not so good news for those buyers, is that the price high is still below the 38.2% retracement of the trend move down from the November 18 high. The low comes in at 1.3294. The recent highs from December 6 in the December 7 stalled near 1.3288. Getting above those levels will be required to increase the bullish bias and give the buyers more confidence.
Absent that and the price is indeed off the lows, it is above the hourly moving averages, but it's not exactly awe-inspiring, or confidence boosting
