The dollar is mixed to start the North American session, with USDJPY surging on comments out of Japan while EURUSD and GBPUSD remain trapped in below-average trading ranges. Volatility is compressed in the European pairs, but expansion risk is building as key technical levels come into focus.
USDJPY
USDJPY is sharply higher after reports that Japan PM Takaichi expressed reservations to BOJ Governor Ueda about raising rates further. That comment weakened the yen and ignited a rally off strong technical support.
The pair bounced decisively from its 100-day moving average at 154.99, shifting momentum back to the upside. The move has now extended above the 61.8% retracement of the February high-to-low decline at 155.592, turning that level into near-term support.
Holding above that retracement keeps buyers firmly in control. A move back below would signal some corrective fatigue. Momentum favors the upside for now.
EURUSD
EURUSD remains subdued, trading in just a 28-pip range — roughly 37% of its 1-month average daily range (76 pips). Compression is evident.
Technically, the bias tilts lower as sellers continue to lean against the falling 100-hour MA at 1.17877. Staying below that moving average keeps downside pressure intact.
A break lower would target the 1.1765 swing low, followed by last week’s double bottom at 1.17414. Below that opens the door toward the 100-day MA at 1.16888, though that would likely require stronger downside momentum.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD is also range-bound, trading within a 36-pip range — about 39% of its normal 93-pip daily range.
The pair briefly pushed above its 100-hour MA at 1.34915, but failed against resistance from the February 6 swing low at 1.35078, which now acts as a ceiling. The quick reversal back below the 100-hour MA shifts the short-term bias back to the downside.
The next support targets come in near 1.34708 (today’s low) and then the 200-day MA at 1.34435. Recall sellers briefly broke below the 200-day MA last week before buyers stepped in. A sustained move below would increase bearish conviction and open the path toward the 100-day MA at 1.33915.
Key Technical Levels
USDJPY
Resistance: 155.592 (61.8% retracement)
Support: 155.592 (now support), 154.99 (100-day MA)
Bias: Short-term bullish above 155.59
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.17877 (100-hour MA)
Support: 1.1765, 1.17414, 1.17265, 1.1700
Broader Target: 1.16888 (100-day MA)
Bias: Bearish below 1.17877
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.34915 (100-hour MA), 1.35078 (ceiling)
Support: 1.34708, 1.34435 (200-day MA)
Broader Target: 1.33915 (100-day MA)
Bias: Bearish below 1.34915
