The EURUSD saw a sharp decline earlier today after an attempted break above the key 100-day moving average at 1.1663 failed to hold. The rejection at that level triggered a strong move lower, taking the pair down through the 200-hour moving average at 1.16367. However, the decline found solid support near the rising 100-hour moving average, currently around 1.1626, where buyers stepped back in to halt the slide.
That successful defense at the 100-hour MA gave buyers renewed confidence, and momentum quickly shifted back to the upside. The rebound carried the price back above the 100-day MA—but once again, the pair failed to sustain gains beyond that key level, repeating the pattern from earlier in the session.
As a result, the EURUSD has slipped back below the 100-day moving average, setting up a pivotal test for traders heading into the new trading day. The question now is whether this second failure will lead to another leg lower, or if repeated tests of resistance signal that buyers are gradually building enough strength for a more convincing breakout.
I discuss these key dynamics—and what they could mean for the next directional move—in the video above.
