The EURUSD traded lower in the Asian session, but sellers could not sustain momentum in early European trading. After a brief dip below the 100-hour moving average, buyers stepped in, reversing the move and driving the pair back above a swing area between 1.1730 and 1.17419.
The rebound gathered further strength after the release of weaker-than-expected US Empire manufacturing data, which pressured US yields lower. The 10-year yield is now down -2.3 basis points at 4.0375%, after having traded as high as 4.087% earlier in the day.
On the topside, the high for the day reached 1.1772, just shy of last week’s swing high at 1.1779. That level is now a key near-term hurdle. A break above would open the door for additional momentum toward the July 7 and July 24 highs at 1.1788, followed by the July 1 high at 1.1829. A move beyond that would mark the highest level for EURUSD since September 2021.
For now, the 1.1730–1.1741 swing area remains a critical support zone, while 1.1779 stands as the barrier to unlock the next leg higher.
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