Earlier today, the EURUSD pushed higher, making a strong test of a key resistance level: the 50% midpoint of the September high-to-October low range. This level is located at 1.17297, and the high of the day came in just shy of it at 1.17285.
Following this resistance test, steady selling pressure entered the market. The subsequent move to the downside first tested an intermediate swing area between 1.1680 and 1.1685, which also contains the 38.2% retracement of the aforementioned range.
The price action continued lower, moving toward another critical support zone defined by the swing area of 1.16449 to 1.16596. Crucially, the 100-day Moving Average (MA) sits right within this zone at 1.16484.
Buyers have actively defended this lower area, with the low reaching 1.1657—holding above the 100-day MA. This defense has led to a modest bounce, and the pair is currently trading near 1.1663.
Outlook
For Sellers: Control requires a decisive break and close below the 100-day Moving Average (1.16484).
For Buyers: Dip buyers will continue to use the 100-day MA as a floor for a potential rotation back toward the 38.2% retracement/swing area (1.1680-1.1685).
The 50% midpoint (1.17297) remains the absolute key barometer and defining hurdle for any sustained breakout to the topside.
