The EURUSD pushed higher following the rate decision and Lagarde’s press conference, but the upside momentum has remained contained, suggesting buyers are still cautious at higher levels.
From a fundamental perspective, Lagarde reinforced that inflation remains the primary concern, with risks tilted to the upside—largely driven by energy prices, while growth risks are shifting to the downside amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. That leaves the ECB in a patient, data-dependent stance, sticking to a meeting-by-meeting approach with no firm commitment on future rate moves. Importantly, geopolitics is now a key driver, impacting both inflation (via energy) and growth (via confidence and demand).
From a technical standpoint, the pair managed to break above its 100-hour moving average at 1.1489, but ran into willing sellers near the 200-hour moving average at 1.15315, capping the rally for now. A sustained move above that 200-hour MA would shift the bias more firmly to the upside, with traders targeting the swing area between 1.1542 and 1.15549. A break above that zone would open the door toward the 38.2% retracement at 1.1608, which becomes a key upside objective if momentum builds.
On the downside, a move back below the 100-hour MA at 1.1489 would hand control back to sellers, with downside targets at 1.14687 (November 2025 low), followed by 1.14325, and then the 2026 low at 1.14102.
In the video above, I take a look at the technicals driving the price action in more detail.
