As the dust begins to settle, markets are increasingly pricing in the likelihood that some form of deal is imminent. That shift in sentiment is showing up clearly across asset classes, with risk appetite returning and volatility easing.
US equities have responded strongly. The S&P 500 is now up roughly 2%–2.25%, reclaiming a key technical level in the process. The index has pushed back above its 200-day moving average at 6625.05, and is currently trading near 6634. Holding above that level is an important signal that buyers are regaining control after recent downside pressure.
The NASDAQ is also sharply higher, but it still lags from a technical perspective. Despite the rally, the index remains below its 200-day moving average at 22262.26, with today’s high reaching 22180.45. That keeps a key resistance ceiling in place and suggests there is still work to do before the broader tech sector fully confirms the bullish shift.
In the bond market, yields are moving lower as risk sentiment improves. The 10-year yield is down 5.2 basis points to 4.338%, after trading as high as 4.44% earlier. Meanwhile, oil prices have backed off as well, falling below the $90 level to $88.77, easing some of the inflation concerns tied to recent geopolitical tensions.
In the FX market, the EURUSD has pushed back toward last week’s highs, reflecting the softer dollar tone. The pair traded up to 1.1619 shortly after the Truth Social post from President Trump, briefly extending above last week’s high at 1.1617. However, that move could not be sustained initially, and the price rotated lower.
Importantly, the pullback found support at a strong technical confluence—the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, along with a prior swing area between 1.1542 and 1.15549. Holding that zone gave buyers renewed confidence, and the pair has since rotated back higher. That successful hold not only reinforced the technical floor, but also aligned with the improving fundamental backdrop.
Looking ahead, the next key hurdle for EURUSD remains the 1.1617 level. A sustained move above that resistance would open the door for further upside, with targets at:
- 1.16445 (recent swing resistance)
- 1.1667 (50% retracement of the move down from the February high)
- 1.16748 (200-day moving average)
- 1.16858 (100-day moving average)
That cluster represents a dense zone of resistance where buyers and sellers are likely to battle for control.
In the video above, I walk through the technical drivers shaping this move in EURUSD and outline the key levels traders should be watching as momentum continues to evolve.
