The EURUSD has been trading up and down in trading today. Just before the release of the retail sales the price did dip, but rose back toward the highs for the day. Nevertheless the range is only 23 pips versus a 70 PIP average over the last 22 trading days (about a month of trading). Traders seem to be sitting tight into the FOMC decision at 2 PM ET.
Technically, the price fell below a swing area between 1.12595 and 1.12658 in the late New York afternoon session yesterday. That took the price into the lower extreme since 30th. The low on November 30 reached 1.1233. The low on December 7 reach 1.12266. The low price yesterday bottomed at 1.1253, and could not go any further than that level today. The last dip right before the retail sales data, took the price below the lower end of that swing area at 1.12595, but once again the price quickly rebounded.
I would think that traders would reestablish the swing area as a support level that if broken would tilt the technical bias more to the downside, and lead to lower prices with the swing lows from November 30 and December 7 as targets.
On the topside, should the swing area hold support, and the price extend above the highs for the day, the 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 1.1286 and 1.12901 are the key barometers for further upside momentum. Get above those moving averages, and the bias returns back into the buyers favor with the 50% retracement of the move since November 30 at 1.1304 and the swing highs seen over the last five days near 1.13228 (see green numbered circles) as the next upside targets.
