Bitcoin has been falling steadily since the ETF approval as the market “sold the fact” but found some footing recently as the overall mood improved. On the macro front, the rate cuts expectations are a tailwind for general risk sentiment which should support the cryptocurrency further. Moreover, the market participants might also want to position long into the halving which is expected to happen in April.
BTCUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that BTCUSD sold off from the 48177 resistance all the way back to the 40000 support. At some point, the price broke below the support, and it looked like we could get a major breakdown, but the price reversed soon after and left behind a fakeout, which is generally a reversal pattern. The buyers should now be targeting the resistance again while the sellers will want to see another break below the support to gain more conviction for new lows.
BTCUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD while it approached the key support around the 40000 level. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, once the price broke above the trendline, we got a confirmation of the reversal and the buyers piled in more aggressively to position for new highs.
BTCUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price pulled back into the upward trendline where we can also find the confluence of the previous swing high level, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 4-hour 21 moving average. This is where the buyers will likely step in again with a defined risk below the trendline to position for new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a drop back into the 40000 support.
Upcoming Events
Today we have the US Employment Cost Index and the ADP data before the FOMC rate decision later in the day. Tomorrow, we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.
