Bitcoin has been struggling recently as the monetary conditions started to tighten more with the US Dollar gaining across the board and global bond yields rallying. Strong data are making the market to lean on the more hawkish side as the Fed kept all the options on the table at the last week’s FOMC meeting. We are also at peak euphoria and a turnaround in fundamentals can make Bitcoin to selloff hard.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin could sustain a break above the 31K level and eventually got stuck in a range. Recently, we got a break below the support level and the price started to range at a lower level. The moving averages have crossed to the downside switching the bias to bearish and we can see how the sellers leant on the red 21 moving average to position for more downside.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we recently got what looks like a fakeout above the 29500 support turned resistance. This should be another bearish signal and therefore give the sellers even more conviction. The buyers will need to see the price breaking above the resistance again to start piling in and target the 31K resistance.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor support level given by the last swing low at 28900. The sellers are likely to lean on the red 21 moving average to position for a fall into the 28475. More conservative sellers may want to wait for the price to take out the swing low first to jump onboard and ride the selloff into the support. The buyers, on the other hand, will need to see the price making a new higher high first to start getting some conviction for more upside.
Upcoming Events
Today the market will be focused on the US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI data, while tomorrow all eyes will be on the US NFP report. Strong data should lead to a more hawkish market pricing and it’s likely to weigh on Bitcoin, while weak readings should cause recessionary fears across the market ultimately weighing on the risk sentiment and the cryptocurrency.
