Bullish Momentum Extends for a Third Week
The AUDUSD moved higher for the third consecutive week, extending to its highest level since September 17th. This upside momentum began after the pair bottomed on November 21 near the high of a swing area between 0.6407 and 0.6424.
During this run, the pair successfully cleared a series of critical technical hurdles, including:
The 200-day and 100-day Moving Averages.
The 50% retracement level.
The 61.8% retracement at 0.6597.
The Current Range: Resistance vs. Support
This week, the price extended above a swing area between 0.66247 and 0.6635, reaching a weekly high of 0.66845. However, buyers ran out of steam just short of the key September 17 targets at 0.6688 and 0.67064, causing the price to rotate lower.
The Retest: The pullback took the price right back to the breakout zone between 0.66247 and 0.6635. Buyers stepped in at this level to defend the trend, pushing price back to the upside.
Defining the Borderlines: Heading into the close, the price is effectively trapped between two clear technical boundaries:
Support: The swing area down to 0.66247.
Resistance: The swing area cap at 0.66888.
A break of either level is required to give control to the buyers or sellers in the short term.
Scenarios: Next Targets to Watch
The Bearish Case (Downside Risk):
On a break below 0.66247, traders will look toward the 61.8% retracement at 0.6597.
A move below that level opens the door to the 50% midpoint at 0.6563.
The Bullish Case (Topside Breakout):
On a break above 0.6688, the high price from September at 0.6706 is the obvious target to get to—and through.
If that level is cleared, I would expect accelerated upside momentum, potentially challenging the highest levels of the year and levels not seen since October 2024.
Watch the Video Analysis: In the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving the move, outline where the risk is, and map out the next targets that matter most for AUDUSD traders.
Be aware. Be prepared.
