The AUDUSD found a firm base last week just ahead of its 100-day moving average, which currently comes in at 0.65208 (lower overlaid blue line on the chart below). That bounce sparked a sharp rebound, with the next three trading sessions retracing all of the prior decline from last Wednesday’s high near 0.6627. Momentum carried the pair to a high of 0.66279 yesterday, but sellers once again leaned against that zone, halting the advance and forcing a rotation lower.
During the Asian session, the pullback extended to test another swing area. This was a support area between 0.65889 and 0.65983, a level defined by price action dating back to late June and early July. Just below sat the 200-hour moving average at 0.65847, adding an extra layer of support.
Buyers stepped in at this confluence and pushed the pair back higher, with the rally extending to 0.66283 — essentially matching both yesterday’s high and last Wednesday’s peak. Sellers have continued to defend that area, establishing a clear ceiling at 0.6628.
Since then, the pair has rotated back toward the downside, once again eyeing the familiar swing support zone between 0.65889 and 0.6598. This area, along with the 200-hour MA and the 100-hour MA at 0.6574, now represents the developing floor for the pair. The tug-of-war between the ceiling at 0.6628 and the floor just above 0.6585 is tightening, leaving traders waiting for the next directional catalyst.
For now, the buyers maintain a slight edge. The price remains above both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, and it is also holding above the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August low at 0.65948. That technical positioning tilts the bias higher. However, the repeated failures at the 0.6628 ceiling only strengthen its importance — and a break above will be required to open the door for further upside momentum. Until then, the AUDUSD is caught in a defined battle range, with traders leaning against both sides while waiting for a breakout.
