The AUDUSD is moving lower today as risk-off sentiment spreads across global markets. U.S. stocks and global equities are pushing lower, while oil prices are surging—currently up roughly 8.8% on the day. In that environment, the U.S. dollar is gaining across the board against the major currencies, with the AUDUSD leading the declines, down about 0.80%.
Part of the downside momentum comes after yesterday’s failed break to the upside. During that move, the pair pushed above the 2026 high at 0.7146 and also briefly traded above the February 2023 high at 0.7157. The rally ultimately extended to a high of 0.71867, but buyers were unable to sustain the breakout.
In the Asian session today, the price traded above and below the old 2026 high at 0.7146, with the high for the day reaching near 0.7160, just a few pips shy of the February 2023 high before momentum started to fade. As the session progressed into Europe, a corrective rally once again stalled right at that 2026 high level. That inability to extend higher was an important technical clue that buyers were losing control and sellers were beginning to step back in.
Since then, the pair has rotated sharply lower over the last several hours, moving down toward a key swing area between 0.7094 and 0.70988. Just below that zone sits the rising 100-hour moving average near 0.7085. A break below that moving average would strengthen the bearish bias and likely have traders targeting the cluster of moving averages (and retracement levels) sitting further to the downside. Those technical levels include the 100 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart and the 50% retracement both at 0.7071, the 200 hour moving average just below that level at 0.7067, and the rising 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart at 0.70496. All those moving averages were broken on the run to the upside during Monday's trade.
In the video above, I walk through the key technical levels driving the move today and explain what traders should be watching next for clues on whether sellers can extend the downside momentum—or if buyers can regain control.
