The AUDUSD came under heavy pressure at the end of last week, reversing lower after a failed attempt to hold gains above a key swing area between 0.6681 and 0.6694 in the wake of the FOMC decision. That rejection marked the turning point, as sellers stepped in aggressively and forced the pair through the 38.2% retracement of the August rally at 0.65948.
Over the last two trading sessions, the pair has been testing that retracement level from below, unable to reclaim it, yet at the same time holding above the next major support — the 50% midpoint of the August rise at 0.65603. This leaves the pair caught in a technical tug-of-war between retracement markers, with sellers attempting to push for more downside while buyers continue to defend deeper pullbacks.
In today’s trade, AUDUSD did bounce higher, but the rally quickly ran out of steam as sellers leaned against the falling 100-hour moving average, now sitting near 0.6612. That moving average has capped the upside, reinforcing its role as a topside barrier that buyers need to break to regain control. The rejection there sent the pair back lower, once again testing support.
On the downside, the price found fresh buyers near the top of another swing area between 0.6589 and 0.6598, which also coincides with the 38.2% retracement discussed earlier. This overlap strengthens the case for that zone as a key near-term support floor. For sellers to fully reassert themselves, they would need to push and hold the pair below this area, which would open the door for a test of the 50% retracement at 0.65603.
As it stands, sellers still hold the upper hand as long as price remains capped beneath the 100-hour moving average. But they still have “work to do” — specifically, breaking through the 0.6589–0.6598 support zone — if they want to extend control and press for a deeper downside move. Until then, the pair remains caught between retracement support below and moving-average resistance above, with traders looking for the next decisive break.
