The AUDUSD is pressing to fresh session lows, and in doing so has broken decisively below the 200-day moving average at 0.6458. That’s notable because the pair has not traded below the 200-day MA since October 17, making today’s move a meaningful technical development. Remaining below this long-term barometer shifts the bias more firmly in favor of the sellers and raises the risk of a deeper corrective move.
If the downside pressure holds, traders will turn their attention to the October low at 0.64398, which served as a key stopping point during the last major selloff. A break below that level would further weaken the technical backdrop and open the door toward the 50% retracement of the entire range from the 2024 high to the 2025 low, coming in at 0.6427. That midpoint becomes a natural next target and a potential battleground for buyers trying to slow the decline.
So the roadmap is straightforward: step one is staying below the 200-day MA, confirming that the bearish bias has re-established itself. Step two is a sustained move below the October low and then the 50% midpoint. Clear breaks of those levels would tilt the narrative increasingly toward the downside and keep momentum traders in control.
